This Conversation Is Over

So, I’ve seen a lot of people recently say some stupid things. Something like Jack Hannahan is a bad player…

 

I did alittle tweeting previously but decided that with the down time at work this morning I would take a bit of time and show you why he is better than most people think, and why he will give Tui some serious opposition come Spring Training for that starting job. Because let’s face it Adrian Beltre is not going to resign with us.

 

Jack is 29, (ironically has the same birthday as me, not the reason I’m defending him) and he will be hitting 30 during spring training. This is important to know and acknowledge when writing about someone who is going to be comparative in a third basemen spot against someone who is 7 years his younger. I’m not in any way saying he is the long term solution. But, Maybe he’ll help push Matt Tuiasosopo into being that Third basemen of the future.

 

Jack Hannahan is currently hitting wOBA of .286, BB% of 10.2 and has a WAR of 1.3, what is even more confusing is he is hitting a solid .285 BABIP and the lowest LD% of his 3 year career at 18.9%.  Why is he not a better hitter? Why is everyone so low on him? Simply because his K percentage is stuck in between 25-30%, which really is disturbing for someone who is not a home run hitter. Should he cut that down I think we would see a lot more production out of his bat. However, with the exception 3 game apperence with the Tigers in ’06 he has never posted anything lower than a 27.1% strike out rate (to include his time in AAA)…hopefully the M’s can fix that.

 

ZIPS has Hannahan finishing the year some where around .296 wOBA which puts him in the Kevin Kouzmanoff and Emilio Bonifacio company. However both of those guys walk about 4-6% less and yet striking out less too. While Kouzmanoff isn’t a bad person to be compared with Bonificio is, however don’t be too concerned because this is all offensive comparions.

 

Offensively when he’s on he’s a C+ at worse he’s a D-  … Bad player? I wouldn’t go that far.

 

Defense is a whole other story.  This guy is one of the best defensive players in the league, he has a UZR/150 of 26.8 and a career 16.5 at Thirdbase. He is currently posting a 11.9 Fielding RAR which compared to the rest of the league ranks second only to Ryan Zimmerman’s 12.7. While Beltre’s career line is (only) (I’m a jerk lol)  13.5 UZR/150 he has also fielded approx. 1300 more games at third than Hannahan.

 

While it’s really only a sample size compared to what Beltre has done, it’s enough to know what we are going to get. Hannahan is a good defensive players one of the best in the league. Yes his bat is below average but, I hardly would call him a bad player…

 

 

 

Reverse This Curse

So, after making breaking my record of most blogs in a month i seem to have all but disappeared from the blogsphere. No choice of my own as this is perhapes one of my favorite past times. However, with all the turn over at work it has left me extremely worn out and not alot of time to make entries.

Here are a few bullet points on whats going on around here.

• I was going to make a blog post yesterday about what to look at the rest of the season but there have been so many i'm kind not wanting to join the masses... just feels redundent

• Russell Branyan has actually been pretty average defensively which is a shocker... 0.2 RAR and 0.0 UZR...

• The Mariners won two games in a row and actually made a dent in the deficent towards first place...until they lost today... oh well.. -9 games back...only 6.5 back from the WC not that it matters.

• Erik Bedard should be let go. He is better off going to another team. Too many expectations and with the injuries there is no point paying him to be on the DL when we have other holes on this team that need to be addressed

• Awesome link about DH's and the HoF

Oh What A Night

So, the season is looking as if its over, and we need to have some reason to keep us somewhat invested in each game. I think that USS Mariners brought up a great point of watching for Ian Snell and that's where alot of people are turning their attention.


I am as well excited for Mr.Snell's first start and to see how he does. However, i will be turning my attention to another player Mr. Jose Lopez. Lopez while starting to show more and more offensive capabilities is an interesting situation. Most scouts see Lopez diminishing capabilities at second base. His lack of range will eventuall push him to a corner position and while there will still be some questions about his defense the bigger question still will be his bat.

This year he has managed to procure a UZR of 0.8 and Frar of -2.0 while not fabulous its about as average or just below average as your going to get.

Jack Zduriencik realizes the situation and has already been connected in several deals to aquire a better second basemen. Ben Zorbist this off season had been reportedly connected in several deals, Rickie Weeks from Jacks prior organization has also been in the mix and of course prior to being delt to San Fran everyone was wanting to get Freddy Sanchez. However with all these deals no one has conciously put together Jose Lopez is going to be replaced.


Of course everyone will point to the fact that Jose has been one of the best hitters for the very weak line up. He has been effective hitting a wOBA of .329 up to this point and a solid slugging percentage .463 which places him near the top of the league for second basemens.

However when comparing him with those other second basemen's in the Majors he ranks in the middle tier of wOBA ... mainly because he is last in BB% he like his former double play partner swings at everything... and while being a good contact hitter (7% higher than the rest of the league) only has a BABIP of .271

Fan graphs did a post in late june about the need for seattle to upgrade its middle infield defensively

This offseason is going to come and i would be really surprised if Aidrian Beltre resigns to play 3b but ill be equally surprised if Jose Lopez is here after next year. He may stay as an insurence to Matt Tuiasosopo to make sure he is ready for the daily job at third.

It would be nice to make a move here and bring in either a stop gap while we wait for Carlos Triunfel to take 2b or pick up someone from another system. This off season Jose Lopez has more value than he ever has.

You Shook Me All Night Long

So, there are comparisons to be made and some things to be discussed with Luke French and Jarrod Washburn but also between Mauricio Robles and the three prospects given up just two days ago.

First off Luke French seems like we didnt get much for Washburn initially until you starting looking at French and then realize holy crap we got a 23 year old, 6 year controlled, (cheap) version of Washburn.

What most people have forgotten was that Washburn isn't a number one or two. He's a 3 or 4, that pitches to contact. He is having a great year, but thats also due to the fact of the outstanding defense behind him. Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, we have all heard this argument before. Either your with it or you think the dolphin is magnificant.

But French while they are calling him an extreme fly ball pitcher does worry me a bit with his high LD%, his GB/FB averages through the past two years have been pretty average. He pitches to contact just like Washburn and he depends upon the guys around him. JUST LIKE WASHBURN. However with Adair i think he can be turned into the same type of succesful pitcher Washburn has been this year, and be a solid starter for us.

Robles, has been compared by Jay Yenchic to Mikael Cleto, who we got from the Mets organization with the JJ Putz deal. Lots of strike outs ... um.. but lots of walks. He is still trying to gain his command and needs to work on a third pitch to get him to stay in the starting rotation.

Jay also respond to my question of comparision by saying

"Definitely better than Adcock as it stands, and could be better than the other two as well. He's a higher risk arm than all of the above, but the potential payoff is enormous and he's shown signs of recent development/improvement. Getting French was nice, but Robles could be a real steal."

Also a really good link by "SeaTown81" in the USS Mariner forums...

Stand by ... Shannon Dryer thinks this may not be the last move of the day for the M's ... and im inclined to agree with her.

So Long, Farewell

So, i was wrong and Jarrod Washburn was traded. Me being wrong is nothing but a good thing. I felt if i didnt state it enough between twitter and the blog, that the Mariners needed something... SOMETHING, ANYTHING for Washburn. He was not going to return as a Mariner, and if he did it wasn't going to be on any discount.

The reports from New York were that the Mariners were asking for Phillip Hughes or Joba Chamberlin... people balked at this idea escpecially after the trade for French and Robles. But i think they really tried to see what was the best possible avenue, and i think they got it. Obviously i wanted a future all star, but lets no kid ourselves. While he wasn't horrible his last few years were not great.

So long Mr. Washburn, farewell, auf weidersehen good-bye

Rock - N - Rule

Jack wilson was someone i felt should be a last scenario type option. I felt even at 31 he was too old for what we were doing here. not to mention that he has been injury prone. I thought the point was to get younger and more athletic. But in fairness Jack Wilson has consistantly been solid on defense.

Wilsons UZR for the past three years comes out to -0.1 , 9.7, 12.5 ... much better than yuni's -10.6 , -12.6, and -1.1 ... thats a really big difference! you thought you saw a difference with Ronny Cedeno playing over Yuniesky. Wait til JackW comes to town.(BTW what is the deal with all these guys named "Jack" coming to town.. should i be worried)


Yuni did have a wOBA* of .285, .316, .323 the past three seasons

Jack's looks like this .300, .293, and .335 ... while he is starting to show a bit more with the bat ...

Jack and Yuni share the same lets swing alot at pitches additude 51.4/51.5 (the percentage of pitches the batter swings at) ... league average is currently 45.9

Wilson walks just a bit more than Yuni with a 5.3/3.7 ... while hte league average is still about 4 points higher.

He shows a bit more discipline then Yuni, and may just fit into that two hole that Don Wak wanted for Bentacourt this past spring, but couldn't maintain due to his horrible pitch selection. Maybe Jack can fit that bill?

If so it would push Russ and Gutz down to the 4/5 slots and put griffey or lopez at the 6/3 spots. it really has the potential to help our line up out alot more than most people think.


Just because Jack Wilson isn't Jason Donald, Reid Bragnic, JJ Hardy or Escobar don't give up on him. He will bring some real value to the team. more than you just might think

New Medicines

Okay ... Here is the deal. First off im gonna talk about the trade and then ill talk about the game today.

First and foremost... lets all agree.. with the brewers doing a faceplant (aka pulling a seattle mariner) against the Washington Nationals they are looking to have a worse shot than we do at the post season...

Okay maybe thats a bit drastic but regardless, they won't be making a move for Jarrod Washburn. Period end of story and if you think otherwise ... well.. then we think differently.

I was really feeling just a solid yuck from the trade today, for a number of reasons. I really liked all those prospects that we gave up. Ive mentioned my infatiation with Adcock a few times, and while he had been moved to the bullpen due to his lack of control. He still had alot of potential.

Brett Lorin i reallly loved and while i still have to keep looking up how to spell "Pribanic" i was actually checking up on his starts in the minors .. which i only do with a few people. i thought he had been pitching pretty well this year...

and then ol' Jeff Clement. Im sorry to see him go in the sense i think he has a future has a professional hitter. i think he'll need to get to the AL and quick. The Mariners did allow in any way Clement being traded to come back to haunt them, the only thing is they really hurt his overall chance to land with a team. i honestly dont know the pittsburgh situation in the minor league system. they seem to content to use him as a Catcher. I think thats a huge mistake and they should be trying to quickly acclimate him to first base. I did notice that ESPN had him placed a first basemen.

Ultimately though, i started thinking, Ian Snell is 27. under contract for potentially the next 3 years and resonable priced. I was reviewing the potential off-season starting pitching free agent market. Its not very impressive, and became suddenly aware sometime around 35 minutes in that Jack was going to be making a move either now or in the off season for a starting pitcher.

Im all in favor of the aquisition for Snell, good move. However, i felt we may have over paid. Then i started reading what some of the fans said and i took in to account what Jack Z said and you know. Three SINGLE A prospects. who knows whats going to happen to them. they won't be close to the majors for another 2 years AT LEAST. who knows whats going to happen.

Plus someone who fits the bill now for short stop. Someone who's excited for play for a post season. I think Wilson is a good character guy also for this team who will lose both Sweeny and Griffey next year. I think he should fit in and take to the mold quickly.

This trade is starting to look better to me ...


---------THE GAME TONIGHT-----------


okay, because this post is turning into a monster ill write something up after the game tommorrow night. Regardless just know i tottally approve and the last two nights was what i have been expecting from my Mariners...

p.s. i love Michael Saunders...

Champagne for My Real Friends, Real Pain for My Sham Friends

unlike the random music video's i post like once every two weeks or so .. this is has a story.

Being deployed i dont have very good bandwith ... frankly im lucky to have any!

So to keep up with my Mariners i have to listen to the KIRO streaming radio off MLB.tv (thanks dad) ...

In the back ground of one of KIROs comercials was this song and i spent nearly three days trying to figure out where it was from and where i had heard it because it was a song i was familar with.


Ladies and Gentlemen the song ive had stuck in my head for the past three days...

falloutboy!

Permenant

Pirates Get:

SS Ronny Cedeno
1B/C Jeff Clement
RHSP Nathan
Adcock
RHSP Aaron Pribanic
RHSP Brett Lorin

Mariners Get:

SS Jack Wilson
RHSP Ian Snell

The Mariners gave up three of
their top five or six starting pitching prospects in exchange for a defensive
shortstop and a volatile starter. I’ll need to mull this over. I’m not sure this
is the type of ‘buy’ the Mariners needed right now.

At first glance, the
Pirates got an awesome haul for Wilson and Snell. Snell is going to be the key
for the Mariners. If the team can get him pitching up to his potential at the
big league level then it should be worth it.

I’ll have a more complete
reaction as well as brief scouting reports on those we lost a little later.

From Jon Shields at Proball NW...

Basic summary: I think we overpaid, unless it comes that out the Pirates are
picking up half of Wilson’s 2010 salary or something. I liked Snell as a good
buy-low candidate, but I’m not sure this is buying low. We gave up a lot for two
guys with a lot of question marks.

-Dave Cameron, USS Mariners

these guys both nailed my reaction...

Im so sick

So, with all this busy trade deadline speculation im kind of at my wits end of waiting for the Mariners to do something. i have been waiting in reality for two months. I really thought that they would make a move prior to the deadline... and well that obviously did not happen.

There was all that talk of Jarrod Washburn going to Millwaukee and that obviously did not happen.

Oh but Morrow is going to Cleveland.....

Whatever,

i have a head ache and im just going to roll over and go to bed and get up in the morning when all this is over.

Im glad Christmas only comes once a year and atleast you can circle the date!