The Boys are back in town...

So uh ... the wheels started turning upstairs. Mike Carp is in San Deigo, and exactly who are we sending down? While he is on the 40 man roster there is no space on the 25 man roster and with Johjima on his way back into the line-up and off the DL there is another roster spot that is going to have to open up. Then you take the following facts into the equation.

Brandon Morrow is going to hang around despite the fact that he is being convereted to a starting pitcher and we aren't taking Garrett Olson out of the rotation, this leaves a rotation of ... 6 pitchers? Not to mention that Ryan Rowling-Smith is on his way back after a decient outing in Tacoma. This equals out to one thing.


We have made a trade...

Tell me Moore, tell me moore

With The Mariners deciding two days ago upon the promotion of Guillermo Quiroz. It settled the tiny debate that was growing that the mariners may want to take a look at Adam Moore. While he has a lot of tools and he is older in age. I posted in the blog on my top 5 on Tuesday that i thought it was a mistake to bring him in to the fold just yet. Let me do a quick explanation on why i believe that and then I'll turn my attention to the real basis for my blog today.


Adam Moore while being 26 and playing collage ball has over 1200 minor league at-bats. It was pointed out in this article by Jerry Crasnick over at ESPN about the importance of a hitter having at minimum 1500 abs to become a successfully major league hitter. Adam Moore will get those final 300 ab this year in AAA Tacoma, and while he isn't hitter bad (.270/.357/.324 AVG OBP SLG) he still has sometime to spend to adapt to the next level of pitching. I fully expect for him to come out next year at spring training and be competitive for the starting catching position. But until then we have time to allow him to learn and refine his skills. We hope to have him on our team for years to come and instead of trying to pull him to the majors like some former prospects we need to make him grab our attention down at AAA.


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=4136793





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Kenji vs. Rob - The Catching Cliche



My dad called me last night and one of the first things he says to me is "So, I guess Johnson's back in there... Good, i think we do better when he's catching"

There has been a lot of people with that feeling. Even I myself have had that feeling from time to time. Rob Johnson is just a very like able guy. He plays and works very hard, he communicates with the pitchers very well, in his interviews he comes across as a down to earth guy.

But beyond all that is he really better than Johjima? This involves more than just fielding percentage, or what they are doing at the plate. This is quantifying a position that beyond any other position (besides the Pitcher) on the baseball field impacts every play.

Of Course i did my research and this is by far not something i did by myself but took many great statisticians and other great authors work to help support my points being made.



--David Gassko Hard ball times on "Quantifying Catcher Defense, and Other Stuff Like That"

--Tom Tango "Evaluating Catchers"


-- Erik from beyond the box score "Catching Prospects: Pop-guns and Bazookas"


definitions for stats used

Innings = Innings the player has played at the position of catcher


ZR = Zone rating
a measure of fielding ability based on the number of outs made in relation to the number of
balls hit into a player's zone, limiting the zone to an area considered playable by the
fielder; calculated as outs/(balls hit into zone).

PB/I% = Passed Balls per inning catching

CS% = Caught Stealing percentage
the percentage of players trying to steal that the catcher throws them out.


CERA = Catchers ERA

This would be the average runs scored on pitcher while the catcher is behind the plate.

HRA = Home runs against

The number of home runs a catcher has given up.


WPA = Win Probability Added

Clutch - How much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.


O-Swing% Percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone

Contact% - Total percentage of contact made when swinging at all pitches

WAR - Wins Above Replacement

(sorry the picture is horrible i'll get a better one up.)

Mariners Record w/ Johnson 11-10

Mariners Record w/ Johjima 9-15

(Jamie burke gets credit for 3 games in which we are 2-1)


The best that we can say is that the Mariners pitching staff and team performs better with Rob Johnson behind the plate, but Kenji appears to be the better player

That said it appears that Johnson has been making a better attempt and seems statistically to be just as good if not better in some small ways. Now, yes the 30% vs. 45% of runners caught stealing is rather large gap. But remember this is Robs first full years in the bigs and he is making a lot of adjustments. Kenji has been playing for 10+ years of professional ball.



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FOR HAYDEN


Tottally stumbled across this article about statistical analysis of Clutch hitting.

Take alook and tell me what you think. It's written by Tom Tango THE LEADING statistical guy
in baseball right now. He works with Bill James and a few other statistical analysis guys.


http://www.tangotiger.net/clutch.html


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If you really love me, come on and let it show...

Top 5: Important Mariners items that are worthy to discuss

1. Should the Mariners bring up Adam Moore to replace Johjima


No, he needs to finish off another month or two of AAA ball. Get that 1500th AB. Come up in September, when and if we're still really out of contention. Yes, he is 25. Yes, the season probley is over. but let's not push our youngesters too fast. Look at Yuni, Look at Brandon. Lets have patience. Let him learn to AAA hitting and then give him the nudge to the next level. Allow him to struggle with out there being a real issue and fans getting upset.

2. Will Yuni be traded within the month of june?


I honestly don't think so... yes there maybe some teams interested. I don't see anything getting done until end of july at best.


3. Is the offense ever going to get better?


Yes, next year.

4. Will Bedard/Washburn be traded before 1st of July?

IMO, Yes. The sooner they get rid of wash and bedard the more they are going to get for them. Keeping them any longer is just straight up gambling that they will stay health for the trade deadline.

5. Should Bedard/Washburn be traded at all?

Washburn, yes ASAP.

Bedard... interesting case. IMO we need prospects. We need to rebuild this farm system. We need hitters and we need some good starting pitching. While Vargas and Olson are doing pretty well, with RR-S headed back. I really would like to see some high ceiling Starting pitcher guys put into our system. Yes, we have some guys. But, i really would like to see some real competition within the farm and hopefully it will push the cream to the top. We'll see...

I am really avoiding my paper i need to write.. i'm on line 9 of 66... BLAH!

For those about to rock...

As i write this blog post it seems the Mariners are intent on blowing this game. so i'm just going to assume they are still under .500

All the things being done and all the blog posts being made it makes me wonder whats best to pick on at this point. What hasn't been touched on... well ..

First off a few lessons we all need to know

Jarrod Washburn .. isn't going to keep up with 2.30 ERA lets understand that

Wlad Balentine is showing he can hit big league pitching in a small sample size

We are getting killed by RHP because of the lack of left handed hitters in the line-up

Outside of Gutz, Griffey and Chavez no one is able to work the count and draw a walk.

Players that we had low expectations for like Branyan, Chavez, Balentine and Gutierez has turned out very well.

Players that we had expected to play worth their contract just arn't. Between Lopez, Beltre and Johjima just have slowed things down.

Griffey has slowly gotten better and better despite his low avg he has done an amazing job with working counts and drawing walks.

Our starting pitching is looking kinda thin... with silva looking like he needs to be moved out of the rotation and RR-S not ready to be back until the end of the month we are realying on Jason Vargas (who is doing a pretty good job) and Chris Jaskasbaukas (who is having his ups and downs) with Garret Olson another avilable option if Jak needs to be pulled.

I should really do a blog on our minor league starting pitchers, and some possible trade scenarios i'm behind... soo maybe thats where i'm going .. anyways ...

there we are ...some things to think about for now