While there are alot of Seattle Mariner fans that just absloutely think that life just wont go on without Adirian Beltre, im here to say not so. For someone who enjoys statistics and who loves to understand how talent is evaluated on major league teams this would normally be blasphamy. but this time i maust stand up and say this is the year. I want to hold the tourch and say "Yes, we can" ... mainly just so i can say "Yes. we can" ... but also because there needs to be a time that we get behind our team and say no matter we are going to the promise land and im following you ever step of the way.
I love Adrian Beltre ... dont get me wrong. He is an amazing third basemen and has been a corner stone for us to lean on for the past four years. This year hasnt been nescarily been like the last. While he has had moments, so has Yuni. So has everyone Lopez has come through with some clutch hits against the Athletics, Angles, Twins and Tigers.
but take a look at the stats really fast for this year....
in 73 games he has had 297 Abs or 313 plate appearences
While over the past 9 years he has averaged around 20 hrs (he did have that break out one time 48 hr year and then went right back to 19 the next year) He was on a pace to only hit around 11... leading to his RBIs an awful pace of only 64.
his .259/.291/ .374 ... was below normal ... while his BA was close .. should he end the season below .300 OBP it would be the first time since 2003. However the OBP seems to have kept him on base to match his season total of runs from last year at around 75.
All the while his BB% has been cut nearly in half and his OSWING% has gone up by 5% --- what that means is he's not been himself this year even while his defensive UZR is a beltre normal 8.7 --
what ive been trying to say through these stats is very simple. We've been winning without him hitting and now we are going to win without him in the line up. We have managed to stay three games above .500 ... yes i know statisitcally he was bound to start improving and we have been riding some luck. why not have that luck last a season. Players go through spells of playing above their phsyical ability .... look at whats going on down in texas with their pitching staff. none of their top 3 pitchers have had years like what they have had this year. But, yet its happening. while some may say its only a matter of time before the regress back to the mean but i say why? Jarrod Wasubrn developed a change up and look at what its done for his pitching. he has developed into a legitimate #2 or 3 starter. yes i know he hasnt always been as bad of a pitcher as we make him out to be ... but he still has been at best a #4 starter. (this is a different arugment for a different time)
The point im trying to make is ... im waking the line and saying this is the mariners year. Yes they may just have to do it with Josh Wilson and Chris Woodward playing INF alot more than we would have liked. But, thats okay ... maybe... just maybe ... our luck will hold out...