Tuesday, June 30, 2009

major tom to ground control... may day .. may day

You know things happen in sports for no other reason but that they do. its why we follow them its why the rest of us root for the under dog. Why we hate the Yankees and why we become infatuated with teams such as the Red Soxs, the Cubs, the Eagles, and the Bears. Every year it seems like they take us on a magic thrill ride and we never know whqat twist or turn it will take us. Some years its bad some years its good. But you just never know.

While there are alot of Seattle Mariner fans that just absloutely think that life just wont go on without Adirian Beltre, im here to say not so. For someone who enjoys statistics and who loves to understand how talent is evaluated on major league teams this would normally be blasphamy. but this time i maust stand up and say this is the year. I want to hold the tourch and say "Yes, we can" ... mainly just so i can say "Yes. we can" ... but also because there needs to be a time that we get behind our team and say no matter we are going to the promise land and im following you ever step of the way.

I love Adrian Beltre ... dont get me wrong. He is an amazing third basemen and has been a corner stone for us to lean on for the past four years. This year hasnt been nescarily been like the last. While he has had moments, so has Yuni. So has everyone Lopez has come through with some clutch hits against the Athletics, Angles, Twins and Tigers.

but take a look at the stats really fast for this year....

in 73 games he has had 297 Abs or 313 plate appearences

While over the past 9 years he has averaged around 20 hrs (he did have that break out one time 48 hr year and then went right back to 19 the next year) He was on a pace to only hit around 11... leading to his RBIs an awful pace of only 64.

his .259/.291/ .374 ... was below normal ... while his BA was close .. should he end the season below .300 OBP it would be the first time since 2003. However the OBP seems to have kept him on base to match his season total of runs from last year at around 75.

All the while his BB% has been cut nearly in half and his OSWING% has gone up by 5% --- what that means is he's not been himself this year even while his defensive UZR is a beltre normal 8.7 --

what ive been trying to say through these stats is very simple. We've been winning without him hitting and now we are going to win without him in the line up. We have managed to stay three games above .500 ... yes i know statisitcally he was bound to start improving and we have been riding some luck. why not have that luck last a season. Players go through spells of playing above their phsyical ability .... look at whats going on down in texas with their pitching staff. none of their top 3 pitchers have had years like what they have had this year. But, yet its happening. while some may say its only a matter of time before the regress back to the mean but i say why? Jarrod Wasubrn developed a change up and look at what its done for his pitching. he has developed into a legitimate #2 or 3 starter. yes i know he hasnt always been as bad of a pitcher as we make him out to be ... but he still has been at best a #4 starter. (this is a different arugment for a different time)

The point im trying to make is ... im waking the line and saying this is the mariners year. Yes they may just have to do it with Josh Wilson and Chris Woodward playing INF alot more than we would have liked. But, thats okay ... maybe... just maybe ... our luck will hold out...

Monday, June 29, 2009

West Coast Shippers

wow ... i just wrote this magnificant post and for whatever reason when i tried to post it ... it failed and blogger just lost it... BLAH!!!

my goodnesss ... the point of my post was this.

We are in a pennant race. Things could go either way at this point in time.

Should one team make a deal....i think it could set off a chain reaction of deals between Texas and LA ... i guess we shall see...

interesting tid bit here ... are the Rangers despereate enough to sell off one of the best top 15 pitchers in the minor leagues for a shot at the division. If that was the case i have to believe that whoever they make the deal for they would want a shot to re-sign them long term.

I am really surprised that LA has yet to make a move on pedro martinez...infact im down right shocked that he has yet to sign with a team....

lets keep focus this pennant race is only going to get bettter!

Friday, June 19, 2009

And im down to my last day..

Being in the military there comes a time where you get to ask yourself. "If today was my last day what would i do?" Sometimes it comes across selfish and I would answer "I would spend it all with my family, doing the things we all love and get one last moment with them." But, lest we forget what our main goal in life is that we may continue to further the kingdom of God. Maybe spend that last day spending it with friends and family telling them about Jesus Christ and their need for salvation. Its always hard to make that call and honestly by the time you end up trying to make the best decision possible, its already over.

Sounds sad, but really for alot of people it is reality.

For me, I dont look at my situation this way. Im only leaving for a short time. Yes, Six months is a good bit of time. But, really compared to many Men and Women that serve this country that is merely a blink of an eye compared to the years of service they will spend there.

I've been trying to figure out a way to put this blog together it started out as one with my wife (AJ) while making fun of Derek Jeter and lifes little funny nuences and it turned into writing about sports and then focusing on my love of baseball and the Seattle Mariners. I know not everyone really cares about them and thats okay. I know its a silly game and compared to the real issues of life that hang in the balance daily, its nothing. But that silly game makes me smile and reminds me how simple this life really is....a simple thrown ball, a bat to hit it with and some bags to touch as you run around a dirt diamond make up a sport that our country has been in love with for about 140 years.

At 17 i knew i didnt have the athletic ability nor the talent to make it very far in baseball. Looking back i know i didnt work as hard as i could have and i know that if i really wanted too i could have very possibly pieced together a independent career (but who really wants that) struggled and was tortued by the thought that i couldn't be involved with the game that i loved as i grew up so as a junior in highschool, i junked it. i threw it away like an old t shirt. ignoring and missing out on an amazing 2001 seattle mariners season.

While i was away from reality the Mariners really didnt do much and it seems to me that they took that same mental brake from the game. Only to have now found a new direction one pointed towards a succesful future, and i refuse (to lose lol) to miss out on it again.

I know my responsibility with the Lord and i know where he has pointed me thus far in my life and i know that i shouldnt get comfortable because just that time that i do he's got something else for me. I know that in the future ahead he has something thats great for me in the future.

This all culminates to 5 easy bullet statements. What are the top 5 things i feel im going to miss out on, as the season progresses strickly concerning the seattle mariners.

5. Felix Hernandez, i think this guy might just have the ability to turn around win 18 games. THAT WOULD BE GREAT!

4. Russell Branyan 40 Hr year .. i think he can... i think he can..

3.The flurry of trades and menauvers that Jack Z and Donny W are going to make upcoming!

2. The Griffey fairwell, once and for all the goodbye to The Kid IN A SEATTLE MARINERS UNIFORM!!

1. Seeing Ichiro get hits 200th hit this year and breaking the record for most 200 hit seasons in a row.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Leaps and bounds

So... i guess Bedard is headed to the DL.

1. I really am expecting a deal anytime ..

2. I believe that the following five people will be involved Mike Moarse, Jeff Clement, Jarrod Washburn, Erik Bedard, and Yuniesky Bentacourt.

3. Teams possibly involved are The Giants, The Phillies, The Rays, The Cardinals, I gotta believe that the Dodgers are willing ot listen to some deals too, and then anytime trade talk is circulating you can guarrentee that both the Red Soxs and the Yankees have their ear to the door willing to step in at a moments notice.

4. I think that you have to believe that the Mariners are becoming increasingly close because of the simply fact that they continue to swap around players between Seattle and Tacoma. I think they are consistnatly prepared for a deal getting done.

5. I will try and not jump to conclusions again. But, I really don't have a fifth point but seriously i always do things in five ... so there

The Boys are back in town...

So uh ... the wheels started turning upstairs. Mike Carp is in San Deigo, and exactly who are we sending down? While he is on the 40 man roster there is no space on the 25 man roster and with Johjima on his way back into the line-up and off the DL there is another roster spot that is going to have to open up. Then you take the following facts into the equation.

Brandon Morrow is going to hang around despite the fact that he is being convereted to a starting pitcher and we aren't taking Garrett Olson out of the rotation, this leaves a rotation of ... 6 pitchers? Not to mention that Ryan Rowling-Smith is on his way back after a decient outing in Tacoma. This equals out to one thing.

We have made a trade...

The Take Over, The Brakes Over

Here we are Mariner fans....

We have just about reached that pennicle of where the season culminates into a must win situation. i know, i know we are only in June. But take a look at the next month.

We have two more games against (the hated) San Diego Padres...

3 @ home v. Arizona
3 @ home v. San Deigo
3 @ LA v. Dodgers

Then a 3/3 @ New York/Boston

followed by a 6 game home stand

3 against Baltimore and 3 against Texas

RIGHT before the All-Star break.

Currently we are sitting at 2 under .5oo just 3.5 back for second place behind the angles and 5.5 back of texas for first.

There is no reason to think that we cant make out Atleast 13 wins in 23 games. to take us to .500 before the All-Star game. The Boston/New York run is going to be a HUGE test to see where we are at and after the all-star game is gets harder with the tigers, blue jays and another series with texas.

Im going to be in an out of pocket during this time so i really felt it important to put it out there. We have to take advantage of an easy end of june because we got a tough july coming up, and its about to punch us in the junk if we're not careful. If we end july within 6 games of first place we may still have a chance. Everything lies within our own grasp.

What is critical is that when we see texas or LA that we play them like its the playoffs. We go in there like its what is keeping us from the world series.

I just dont think we have ahad much agression towards those big and cruical teams this year.

Matt Cain vs. Tim Lincecum

Ahh...Matt Cain lets do this

First off i'm not saying Matt Cain you are a horrible pitcher. Not in anyway at all. Please understand that first point. But understand this between him and TL (Tim Lincecum) i don't think he's the best pitcher on the staff. Despite the face that Cain does have the "lower" ERA

TL Vs. MC arguement... Take one

Has Matt Cain won more games? Yes

Does Matt Cain have a better ERA? Yes

But right that is as far as Matt Cain goes..

Lincecum has pitched more innings (88 v. 86.2) in the same amount of games. While cain has 3 CG and Lincecum only has 1, TL has the only shutout between the two.

Lincecum has more strike outs (103 v 68) AND LESS walks. (26 v 34) and has compiled a WHIP of wins the WHIP war (1.17 vs. 1.26) and has the lowest OBP (.294 vs. .313)

TL has only given up 3 home runs vs the 9 that MC has let go out of the yard.

TL wins the *FIP( 2.18 v 4.04)and matt cain leaves the inning 88% of time with runners on base vs. Tim Lincecum 75% ...

FIP - Fielder Independant Pitching on an ERA scale...if he didn't have such good defense matt cain would be on the out...

Just because Cain has more wins and a lower ERA dosn't make him the better pitcher. He is obviously having a great season and the two are very close, i side with TL in this comparison simply because i don't believe that Matt Cain is going to sustain this type performance at this time.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

So far, So bad

Well i've been talking with my brother, and he made up his All-Star list two weeks ago. But, now its my turn,

The "guide-lines" are simple I try not to pick a bunch of people from one team, i.e. i don't fill the team up with Seattle Mariners because they are my favorite team.

The 2009 Harrison's Major League Baseball All-Star Team

------------American League

Catcher - Joe Mauer - Twins
1st Base - Mark Teixeira - Yankees
2nd Base - Aaron Hill - Blue Jays
3rd Base - Evan Longoria - Rays
SS - Derek Jetter - Yankees
OF - Jason Bay - Red Soxs
OF - Nelson Cruz - Rangers
OF - Carl Crawford - Rays
DH - Justin Morneau - Twins
P - Zack Grienke - Royals

--------------National League

Catcher - Bengie Molina - Giants
1st Base - Albert Pujols - Cardinals
2nd Base - Chase Utley - Phillies
3rd Base - Mark Reynolds - Diamond Backs
SS - Hanley Remierez - Marlins
OF - Raul Ibanez - Phillies
OF - Ryan Braun - Brewers
OF - Brad Hawpe - Rockies
DH - Aidrian Gonzalez - Padres
P - Dan Haren - Diamond Backs

----------HR Durby--------------

Russ Branyan - 1b- Mariners
Ryan Howard - 1b - Phillies
Carlos Pena - 1b - Rays
Adam Dunn - Of - Nationals
Brandon Inge - 3b - Tigers
Prince Fielder - 1b - Brewers

Smile like you mean it!

Wow okay i know that i really need to try and keep up with this and like hayden was saying in his blog, after time it just becomes hard to keep up with everything. Not to mention there is some but not ALOT of things going on. News has been coming in slowly. After the MLB draft nothing seems to have been really popping.

So lets go over what IS currently going on..

- Brewers look to possibly making a play for Erik Bedard

i think this A) works in our best possible interest because Jack Zduriencik is came from that organization as scouting director. he knows the prospects and B) The phillies are more interested in Washburn than Bedard.

The reason that i saw they are more intrested in Washburn is simple. They have Sam Perlozzo (who i love!) as a coach, he has seen bedard as a member of the Mariners pitching staff last year and he knows how many issues Bedard has with the media and adjusting to a new city. Seattle was bad enough do you really think that moving him to Philly is going to be easier? Plus the phillies employ Pat Gillick as a special advisor. As a former member of both the Mariners and the Orioles, i can't believe that Gillick would be infavor of this move. If and that is a BIG IF, the mariners made this issue. i dont think we would get nearly that much back as a Peavy, a Josh Johnson or another type A pitcher.

- Project Balentine is failing .. so very badly at this point.

Now dont miss understand me. He has made great adjustments to last year. But really, there was no place to go but up. He has 38 games, and while his BB%/K% has improved, its nothing to ride home about. He is suppose to give the line-up more power but has only one home run and been homerless for a month and a half. His defense is sitting at -6.9 uzr. He has more room to grow and started this season on a great streak almost moving Endy Chavez out of the platoon spot. However, coming back down to earth the past 6 weeks he has gone the exact opposite direction currently sitting at .218/.273/.336

I have to suspect that at this point he is a trade chip in whatever deal Jack Zduriencik is working. Michael Saunders has bee killing the ball at AAA and with his prospect status i am willing to bet that by August, Saunders will make his debut in blue.

- Morrow, blah, word vomit, blah

Everyone knows that Morrow is know being converted back to a started. like the volkswagon said, thats cool.

no needs to beat a dead horse. If you want more info on the situation check out USS Mariner, Lookout Landing or either of the Seattle Times page.

- 5.5 Games behind Texas

Yeah so what, i mean seriously this isnt an issue. The Rangers arnt going to win more than 88 games (if that) unless they make a move (which with their prospects its completely possible) they dont have the pitchers to really make a move. This division is up for grabs for whoever really wants it the most.

The question is at what point do we throw in this towel? At 5.5 we dont feel out of it but what about at 8 or 9. Do we feel the same at that point or do we start looking to next year.

I really like the idea that Dave Cameron and Mike Salk discussed the other day on 710 ESPN, and that was Buying AND Selling at the same time. Much like the A's and Billy Bean in the late 90s or much like Jack Zs trade early this year with JJ Putz. He got Chavez, Vargas and Gutz but also Carp and Carerra (who i love). Its about gathering players not just for tommorrow but also for today.

Other things to think about

When does Adam Moore come up ? I really hope they continue to wait until September (atleast)

Who plays third when/if Aidren is traded? I like the idea of keep branyan to play third, and bring either clement or carp up to play first to give us another left handed bat.

Where are all those guys we drafted in 2008? I was curious so i looked it up... check out the website below.


Saturday, June 13, 2009

Mr. Brightside .. or maybe not

Well, im not sure if the plan was to make sure the Rockies won every game no matter what. But if that was the case someone tottally forgot to tell Jose Lopez and now he made Mark Lowe look bad. Besides the two complete defensive colapses we havnt played bad ball. but, it does sting abit after working back to .500 only to give away two games in a row.

As it stands we really need a redemption game tommorrow afternoon. I must say maybe i am being a bit pisamistic, however i dont really expect anything great out of Vargas. Hes been pretty good so far this year. Really nothing like what he was last year for the Mets and has started looking like what the Marlins expected from him three years ago and currently he is posting an ERA of 2.35 a WHIP of 1.20.

You probley ask.. Harrison, why in the world are you worried about the pitching, it hasnt been the problem this year. Its the lack of runs that is killing us. Yes, true enough we have had alot of issues with runs, and even tonight only three different players (Ichiro, Beltre and Lopez) combined for our 8 hits. But our offense seems like its starting to streak in the right direction, and thats the way they work. Sometimes against you sometimes for you. This wave is taking us the way we want to go.

No, im worried about the pitching simply because Jason Vargas has averaged over 50% of hits put into play are fly balls for the past three years. (actually he has brought that down to 45% this year) He dosnt strike many hitters out and hitters make contact 83% of the time. He has given up 6 home runs in 6 starts and 8 games total that he's pitched.

So what does this mean? Flyball pitcher in coors field equates to death to that pitcher. yes Jarrod Washburn had a good outing despite the fielding errors. But he has been on a hot strike and he has a higher swinging strike percentage. I dont think Vargas will be that bad, and im so glad its him and not silva. But lets face it, any fly ball pitcher in coors is down right scary

Friday, June 12, 2009

Move along

So this is just a test of the emergency broadcasting system....

Also known as testing my blogger posts via my e-mail. Which is how i'll be updating my blog while i'm out on my trip to the middle east for the next six months.

Of course i'll giving killer statistical analysis and some weird sports views but thats why my blog is different than USS Mariner and L/O Landing ...it's not just the same stuff. Although i love reading their reviews and insight.

I want to make more posts on here but since i've been home i have alot on my plate. i'll be making more updates with the more time i get.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

I'll be here awhile...

Its funny... I was thinking to myself yesterday with Brandon Morrow going 2 2/3's, "Man i don't remember him ever pitching this long out of the pen, that's kind of weird." and then of course as they announce lastnight by (TNT)/today that Morrow is looking to head to AAA to start strengthening his arm for heading to the starting rotation. Which sorry but i think that is tottally awesome. I know alot of people are pist off but you know what lets get over it. he's headed there now and thats better than never. hopefully that will be the same with aumont. Which i really think in the next year and a half he'll end up back in the rotation.

Someone mentioned this on another blog and i really agree with it. Aumont has a history of arm injuries and the purpose of taking him out of the rotation is simply to control the amount of innings he pitches. Which implies that this isn't a perment fixture. I think it's something they may just let take care of itself.

Morrow says he's not going to "rush" things, and is prepared to take his time and be in tacoma for awhile. I suspect he maybe down there until August or even September.

Top 5: Reasons to be glad Morrow is going to the rotation, despite being in AAA for the rest of the year.

5. He was rushed to the Majors anyways and needs time to truly develop without any pressure

4. Morrow is going to be able to build an everyday repetition which is needed when pitching every 5 days.

3. He needs to work on his secondary pitches. He doesn't throw them effectively and needs to learn that when mixed in with his fast ball they can realy throw off hitters... come to think of it if he would talk to Felix about that, it would help him too.

2. Morrow is one of the best prospects in the system and this just gave us a front line rotation guy without making a trade.

1. We can now have bobble head morrow night without him being on the teams roster. <--THIS

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Thoughts from 2009 MLB draft day

Bud Selig either is about to or has recently had a stroke. he scares me ... can we please elect someone who know what year it is?

Mike Trout to the Angles.... do you think he's going to hear some Tim Salmon jokes?

Dustin Ackley, i love him .... Nick Franklin is a solid choice in the system.

Back on the saddle again...

And again we are avoiding yet another paper. Actually this time i'm avioding 4 of them.

Just something to think about Ronny Cedeno is starting again for Yuni Bentacourt. It seems as if ol' Donny boy has had enough of the stuff from Yuni.

The Mariners are just 5 games back and if they keep winning games i gotta think that they will be making a move to aquire a middle infielder. Not sure who that would be but over at USS Mariner they have thrown out a few names....

OKAY SHUUUSSSHHHHHhhhhhhhhhh... Ol' Bud Selig is at the podium!

Nationals on the Clock...

If it's not Stratsbrugh i'll be stunned at this point.

Holy crap they are taking along time for this pick....longer than i would have thought...

And of course its Stratsburgh...


t-minus 30...

DUSTIN ... draft ... DUSTIN ...

w00t Dustin Ackley welcome to Seattle!

Now we wait to see how the 27th round shapes up.

Monday, June 8, 2009

perfect situation

i must say at this point in time there has been so much great blogging going on the last two weeks and i really feel as if i'm missing out on so much. i really haven't been keeping up wiht alot of it and what is even worse is besides the basic win/loss/ichiro hitting streak. i havnt been able to keep up with what is going on.

i know that RRS isnt coming back anytime soon with that disaster of a proformance in AAA.

i know that Tyler Johnson experiement finally had it's plug pulled.

i know that the Ms are finally starting to win some series again, showing they arnt as bad as they let on in early May.

i know that there are some serious debates going on about weather to blow up the team or even trade off bits and pieces prior to the oppertunity of the mariners maybe making a run at the west title. which btw as much as i love my mariners i dont think they can win it. unless for whatever reason their hitting suddenly changes and their pitcyhing stays right where its at.

besides that,

it looks like Beltre might finally be coming out of his slump.

it looks like jose lopez is still in his slump.

and it looks like they are really giving Ronny Cedeno every chance to prove that he can play everyday SS.

Bleeding blue and teal has a great article by a guest writter check it out!

USS Mariner has as per usual once of the best comprhensive in depth looks at our farm system with Jays monday post.

i'm really looking forward to the game tommorrow and even more so to the draft. 4 picks .. 2 rounds... heres hoping for ackley,scheppers, and the many others that we may contract like std's over the next few days.

good night

Saturday, June 6, 2009

That what you get

HEYEHEY!!!!! yes i'm back, yes i have reports due' and yes once again i'm choosing this wonderful blog over it those reports! i have alot to catch up ... a big win and some really horrible loses.

Last night i hear wladimir balentine committed 2 errors in left and that really cost us the game. all i have to say is ... what the heck happen wlad??? i mean seriously... you were so kicking butt you didn't have a good average but you were putting together smart approaches to the plate playing solid defense and now, you can't hit the ball and obviously you can't field it either.

really i don't have much about this week to really talk about besides randy finally got 300, glavine in a freakin cold hearted move got cut and the mariners won some and loss some games they shouldn't have. seems like i didnt miss much!