Sunday, May 31, 2009

Gone...like Al Pachino's cash!

i'll be gone til saturday on a "camping" trip with the Army. i'll keep posting via twitter with my phone. If anyone's got questions for me bring it and i'll do some answering when i get back!

and if you want to ask via e-mail it's hkcrow@sbcglobal.net hit me up!

Friday, May 29, 2009

Boomtown ...Ode to "don't let this happen again!"

As everyone sits and complains about things such as Adam Jones and Chris Tomlin becoming the future center pieces within Baltimore, all the while we contemplate the trade possibilities with Erik Bedard.
I personally start to sit back worry about not just this trade but our of the trades of the past and where we are headed as an organiztion. Don't get me wrong, Jack Z makes me very confident with what he has put together so far and looking at what we got for JJ Putz i know he's on the right path. I mean we aren't even a year in and Seattle is looking like they could have very easily come out on top of that trade dispite the Mets being in 1st place. What, you0 don't believe me???
Lets take a look...


Mariners

Franklin Guitierriez CF - .273 with 3 Hrs / 19 RBIs / 2 - 5 SBs/ UZR =5.7

Endy Chavez OF - .271 with 1 Hrs / 10 RBIs / 6-7 Sbs / UZR= 2.7

Ronny Cedeno SS - (via Aaron Hielman trade) .173 with 2 Hrs / 5 RBIs / 1-2 SBs UZR= 0.7

Jason Vargas LHSP - 1-0 / 1.29 ERA / 1.14 WHIP / 7-15 - BB/SO

Garrett Olson LHSP - (via Aaron Hielman trade) 0-1 / 3.66 ERA / 1.53 WHIP / 9-12 - BB/SO

Mike Carp 1b - (in AAA) .297 with 8 Hrs / 24 RBIs / 0-1 SBs / UZR = UNKNOWN

Ezequiel Carrera CF - (in AA) .351 with 0 Hrs / 16 RBIs / 12-18 SBs / UZR = UNKOWN


Mets

Jeremy Reed OF/INF - .298 with 0 Hrs / 3 RBIs / 0-1 SBs / UZR = 1.5

Sean White RRHP - 0-2 / 7.36 ERA / 1.91 WHIP / SVs 0-1 / 11 - 16 , BB-SO

JJ Putz Setup man - 1-3 / 3.42 ERA / 1.37 WHIP / SVs 2-3 / 16 - 18 , BB-SO


While Putz isn't having a bad year and Reed has been helpful during the mass amount of injuries that the Mets have run into. Carp is on a killing streak in AAA, Carrera is leading AA in walks along with working hard on his base stealing while hitting for a great avg. Oh yeah, and Vargas, Endy and Gutz have been key players in the Mariners Semi-Success so far this season. While Olson has been pretty impressive from both the bullpen and his couple of starts thus far through the season and he has a couple more starts on the way taking Jaskabaskas spot in the rotation.


either way .. we can say the Mariners have taken this trade, all the way up to unless JJ Putz DIRECTLY contributes to the Mets reaching the NLCS or even the series.

The whole point of this is leading some where. We have been in situations past where we have made trades and we gave up way too much to get way too little. it makes me worry what we are going to do with Jeff Clemente. We have alot of players where they seemingly are just able to hit but unable to play a position or we don't have a position to give them. Mike Morse, Bryan LaHair, Brad Nelson and then Jeff Clement.


While you can seemingly "clump" them all together, Clement has a much higher ceiling of all those players. He's also the youngest by a year(or two in Nelsons case) at 26.


The Mariners have had this issue with a young catcher before. However, it wasn't because of his ability to play catcher. (or lack there of) Just came down to a simple factor of having no room for him. His name was Jason Veritek. Oh yeah, he was named only the third captain of a Boston Red Soxs team since 1923.

Lets review the situation. The Mariners in desperate need for a closer with the utter colapse of their bullpen in 1997 and with the solid play of Dan Wilson, the mariners traded their top catching prospect Jason Varitek and hot young pitcher Derek Lowe to boston for Heathcliff Slocumb. it was a knee jerk reaction. they had an oppertunity to take the division and they did what they could to solidfy their oppertunity.

I don't want to see Jeff Clement become that would could have been. He reminds me alittle bit of Carlos Delgado while Carlos spent more time in the minors but also was younger when bursting onto the scene, his situation is similar and while the Jays were trying to work their youngster into the line up it was until he was 24 (5 years of minor league work from 19 years of age) that the jays had a place to give him... the DH. While Delgado has always had more pop than Clement, his(clement) ability really has started to develop further (that and his health has heald up long enough to show the mariners what they have.)


this is the point where i show you whats REALLY going on



Minor League Stats

Varitek ,AB - 1235 , AVG -.247, 39 Hrs, 165 RBIs, 167 Rs, 169 - 305 BB/SO

Delgado, AB - 2613, AVG .303, 125 Hrs, 295 RBIs, 244 Rs, 210 - 271 BB/SO

Clement, AB - 1214, AVG .290, 52 Hrs, 215 RBIs, 195 Rs, 151 - 245 BB/SO



Obviously as you can tell Clement draws comparisons to both players as i was saying and the point that i'm trying to make is very simple. It all comes down to value. Make sure you get it.


This young man has major league ability and SHOULD he be traded. we need proper value back, lets not be at a point four years from not saying i wish...

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Tell me Moore, tell me moore

With The Mariners deciding two days ago upon the promotion of Guillermo Quiroz. It settled the tiny debate that was growing that the mariners may want to take a look at Adam Moore. While he has a lot of tools and he is older in age. I posted in the blog on my top 5 on Tuesday that i thought it was a mistake to bring him in to the fold just yet. Let me do a quick explanation on why i believe that and then I'll turn my attention to the real basis for my blog today.


Adam Moore while being 26 and playing collage ball has over 1200 minor league at-bats. It was pointed out in this article by Jerry Crasnick over at ESPN about the importance of a hitter having at minimum 1500 abs to become a successfully major league hitter. Adam Moore will get those final 300 ab this year in AAA Tacoma, and while he isn't hitter bad (.270/.357/.324 AVG OBP SLG) he still has sometime to spend to adapt to the next level of pitching. I fully expect for him to come out next year at spring training and be competitive for the starting catching position. But until then we have time to allow him to learn and refine his skills. We hope to have him on our team for years to come and instead of trying to pull him to the majors like some former prospects we need to make him grab our attention down at AAA.


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=4136793





------------------------------------
Kenji vs. Rob - The Catching Cliche



My dad called me last night and one of the first things he says to me is "So, I guess Johnson's back in there... Good, i think we do better when he's catching"





There has been a lot of people with that feeling. Even I myself have had that feeling from time to time. Rob Johnson is just a very like able guy. He plays and works very hard, he communicates with the pitchers very well, in his interviews he comes across as a down to earth guy.

But beyond all that is he really better than Johjima? This involves more than just fielding percentage, or what they are doing at the plate. This is quantifying a position that beyond any other position (besides the Pitcher) on the baseball field impacts every play.

Of Course i did my research and this is by far not something i did by myself but took many great statisticians and other great authors work to help support my points being made.



--David Gassko Hard ball times on "Quantifying Catcher Defense, and Other Stuff Like That"

--Tom Tango "Evaluating Catchers"


-- Erik from beyond the box score "Catching Prospects: Pop-guns and Bazookas"


definitions for stats used

Innings = Innings the player has played at the position of catcher


ZR = Zone rating
a measure of fielding ability based on the number of outs made in relation to the number of
balls hit into a player's zone, limiting the zone to an area considered playable by the
fielder; calculated as outs/(balls hit into zone).

PB/I% = Passed Balls per inning catching

CS% = Caught Stealing percentage
the percentage of players trying to steal that the catcher throws them out.


CERA = Catchers ERA

This would be the average runs scored on pitcher while the catcher is behind the plate.

HRA = Home runs against

The number of home runs a catcher has given up.


WPA = Win Probability Added

Clutch - How much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.


O-Swing% Percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone

Contact% - Total percentage of contact made when swinging at all pitches

WAR - Wins Above Replacement





(sorry the picture is horrible i'll get a better one up.)




Mariners Record w/ Johnson 11-10

Mariners Record w/ Johjima 9-15

(Jamie burke gets credit for 3 games in which we are 2-1)


The best that we can say is that the Mariners pitching staff and team performs better with Rob Johnson behind the plate, but Kenji appears to be the better player

That said it appears that Johnson has been making a better attempt and seems statistically to be just as good if not better in some small ways. Now, yes the 30% vs. 45% of runners caught stealing is rather large gap. But remember this is Robs first full years in the bigs and he is making a lot of adjustments. Kenji has been playing for 10+ years of professional ball.



-----------------------------------
FOR HAYDEN


Tottally stumbled across this article about statistical analysis of Clutch hitting.

Take alook and tell me what you think. It's written by Tom Tango THE LEADING statistical guy
in baseball right now. He works with Bill James and a few other statistical analysis guys.


http://www.tangotiger.net/clutch.html


------------------------------------

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

If you really love me, come on and let it show...

Top 5: Important Mariners items that are worthy to discuss

1. Should the Mariners bring up Adam Moore to replace Johjima


No, he needs to finish off another month or two of AAA ball. Get that 1500th AB. Come up in September, when and if we're still really out of contention. Yes, he is 25. Yes, the season probley is over. but let's not push our youngesters too fast. Look at Yuni, Look at Brandon. Lets have patience. Let him learn to AAA hitting and then give him the nudge to the next level. Allow him to struggle with out there being a real issue and fans getting upset.

2. Will Yuni be traded within the month of june?


I honestly don't think so... yes there maybe some teams interested. I don't see anything getting done until end of july at best.


3. Is the offense ever going to get better?


Yes, next year.

4. Will Bedard/Washburn be traded before 1st of July?

IMO, Yes. The sooner they get rid of wash and bedard the more they are going to get for them. Keeping them any longer is just straight up gambling that they will stay health for the trade deadline.

5. Should Bedard/Washburn be traded at all?

Washburn, yes ASAP.

Bedard... interesting case. IMO we need prospects. We need to rebuild this farm system. We need hitters and we need some good starting pitching. While Vargas and Olson are doing pretty well, with RR-S headed back. I really would like to see some high ceiling Starting pitcher guys put into our system. Yes, we have some guys. But, i really would like to see some real competition within the farm and hopefully it will push the cream to the top. We'll see...

I am really avoiding my paper i need to write.. i'm on line 9 of 66... BLAH!

Saturday, May 23, 2009

How to save a life...

Jason Vargas needs to sit down with Felix Hernandez and show him how to mix his pitches up. Vargas strikes out 7 through 7 and it's largely due to his changing of speeds and mixing of pitches. he looked very impressive for his second start in a row. the last thing i need is to become excited by a medicore pitcher, who makes me believe he's something greater than what he really his. let's wait this out and see how well he is performing come july.

Thursday, May 21, 2009

If



This blog is really in response to my little brothers blog over at Hayden's blog. I really think that it's a cool idea. The what if i was MLB Commish. Things i would possibly change. While i really don't want to hope onto the bandwagon and do blog post just like his there was a few things there that i would change and i don't agree with. So let me give a short little spin.

He talked alittle bit about changing up the divisions and reworking the playoff systems.



First of all any true baseball old timer is already enraged by the way the system works no with the three divisions and the wildcard. i know it's been 15 years and at this point a two division league is old school. But, something that the "new" play off system has shown us is that it works. it brings more excitement and build atticpiation. It gives the possibility for any team to gain the ability make a challenge for world series. next year is now every year for alot of towns.

You would think this makes playoffs less special and that was the fear of many old timers within the game. Is the fear of taking away what was so sought after.

i think this only works so far however, if you look at sports such as basketball, such as football. Thier post seasons go on much longer and have more teams involved. YET, they are still just as special year after year.



With that said, Hayden suggested a realignment within baseball's divsions. I don't disagree that it wouldn't be a bad idea. So with that said. Instead of trying to readjust everyone for the current West-Central-East. I made a new division calling it the mid-west. While i am an west coast fan i enjoy watching the Mariners. I would love to see a change that made each division alittle more competative. I like the thought of having only 3-4 teams within a division. it makes for a greater rivalry and it makes playing those games all that more important.


What i hate is that there is six teams within the NL central division. I think that an realighment could bring an even greater balance to the most balanced in the Big four of pro sports (Baseball, Basketball, Football and Hockey)




The realigned standing in the AL ..


West - Angles, Athletics, Mariners


Mid-West - Rangers, Royals, Twins


Central - White-Sox, Indians, Blue Jays, Tigers


East - New York, Boston, Tampa, Baltimore



Standings in the NL

West - Padres, Dodgers, Giants,


Mid-West - Arizona, Colorado, Houston,


Central - Cinnci, St.Louis, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Millwauake


East - Philly, New York, Atlanta, DC, Florida-Maimi



you can adjust the playoff system in two different ways.


Creating a new round in which two wild cards play the bottom 2 seeded teams, much like the NFL.


or


You could elimatinate the wild card all together and go with each division representing itself in post season play. I think more purest would go for that action.


However, with that you run the risk of having the NL East completely rebel as there are five teams fighting for one spot against an NL West that has three teams fighting for one spot. obviously someone makes out in the end and someone ends up short.


If you do award two wildcards you run into the issue of a higher percentage of teams within the AL goes to the playoffs every year over the NL. obviously thats the case now as the AL has only 14 teams vs the NL of 16. the only other option in that case is expansion. While i am against the idea of expansion at this time within Major League Baseball i feel if you went with a two wild card system this would be the best way to even everything out.



So who would be in line for my top 2 expansion slots?


I think you would be surprised. As more and more sports are trying to spread overseas and trying to gain a more global presence within the sports, baseball has a unique oppertunity. Instead of going overseas. Why not head south?


My expansion teams would be Mexico City, and Puerto Rico.


Why not dive into the spanish market. It's the top baseball producing market in the world, and while they may not have the money you could see the start of REAL international baseball take place. Why not we have had baseball in Canada for over 40 years not. While the Montreal situation was horrible, Toronto has facilitated an excellent fan base for the past 17 years.


Why not try it south of the boarder.


Then you have another team to add to the central and east divisions. Want to put puerto rico in the NL so it can generate a good rivlary with Florida(aka miami) switch them with that 'Natinals' new city, new league. It wouldn't be devestating switch and it maybe a great marketing move to have DC play Baltimore more than once every three years. that could be a great grown rivlary.


This all boils down to pure speculation and while thats all it is. Is there really a need to realign the divisions. No, not really. But, I think baseball's next commish has some interesting moves ahead of him (or her) and i think it's important to see how they involve the south american market, which besides it's countrymen that they send us to play in our Major Leagues, is an economic untapped resource.

Im real



Baseball has always been a time honored tradition within not just my family but across most of America and yes, with all this talk of steroids baseball has taken a downward turn. More and more people have turned away and families are turning to other sports to take that it’s place. But, maybe that’s because the families are not what they used to be either. Once upon a time it was about family and traditions growing up going to baseball games and learning about the players of the past. Now families don't spend the time together like they should.

I know it's going to be important to me to tell my kids about the significance of Jay Buhner and Edgar Martinez, telling them just as much about Joey Cora as I do about Ken Griffey Jr…

Telling them about Kaz, Hasagawa and Ichiro.

Explain the significance of Randy Johnson, and how we got Fredy Garcia which in turn has brought us Franklin Gutierrez.

I know that its not just steroids, it’s not just the floundering family, as my grandfather pointed out it’s also the price of tickets going through the roof. The fact that the family experience itself is marred by the ability to spend less than 200$ on a night out for the family.

Yes this isn’t anything you’ve never heard before, but let me explain to you why, it’s important to me.

Growing up there are two things that got me and my Dad(Mike) through the years of living together. One of those things is baseball, the tradition of going and sitting in right field and watching Jay and Junior patrol the out field astro turf in the Kingdome.

While, my dad didn’t talk to me about who Alvin Davis was or the importance of Harold Reynolds or Mark Langston, or that Gaylord Perry got his 300th as a Mariner. He took me to games, he encouraged and facilitated that love of the game. He didn’t grow up a baseball fan in fact I’ pretty sure he never had watched a game by himself, but because of me he drew himself into the game. This brought me so much closer to the game and so much closer to him. It also is a big part of our current relationship.

Finding out just three short months ago that I had a little brother has meant so much to me in so many different ways but this new found rivalry of brother-brother. It’s amazing to me. To find another person that has the same same view points, their brain and though process works so very similar and then of course the humor of it all is equally shared. While building such an relationship can be so very tough and at certain times awkward. Having a common bound of baseball brings our relationship to new level, it gives us something to pick on each other about and it gives us something help us understand each other. It establishes a special point-of-view that can only be understood by a fellow enthusiasts that has just as much invested in their own team. Don’t get me wrong, I love my new found siblings all three of them just as equally (actually Hayley is a big Ichiro fan so there is a bit of an edge there) but that love of the game bring to new life and a new perspective to our relationship.

Now, with as much as I brought baseball to my dad, my dad brought me to star trek. Oddly he says he never watched the original generation of Spock and Kirk. He had scene the movies but never watched the TV show. Well until the next generation, the birth of captain Picard brought a new mariner into our lives. The mariner of space and it’s final frontier. The stories of the USS Enterprise crew and missions. The cult phenomenon of the Klingons, the fear of the Borg taking over all life in the galaxy and conquering free thoughts and individuality, and then the unique situations of the federation seeking out new life and new civilizations.

As important as baseball was to the father-son relationship the introduction to star trek was just as much an important piece of the puzzle. Between these two vitally important pieces were what my father and I built my relationship upon. Now, as I said before I have new found family and I am blessed beyond measure with the opportunity to have two dads. While mike was there for me through my youth I have Howard that is also in the picture and just as important to me. Please don’t misunderstand me when I write this. Howard and I have a lot of history together in our future. However, this isn’t about the future it’s about the past. It’s about the redeeming qualities of that has built up relations.


Star Trek itself was the first “adult” tv show I ever watched with my dad. In fact to top that my dad and I have only gone to 5 movies as guys night out. star trek VI, star trek: generations, star trek: first contact, the matrix, star trek: insurrection. I don’t count the half movie of Ghostbusters that we walked out on because it was too scary for me. Seriously that happened.

My wife and I recently went to the new Star Trek movie staring the new cast and a reboot of the series. This brought up the thought I had never seen a star trek movie without my dad. I mean I had watch a few of the movies on my own. But, when watching a movie for the first time it was always with him. I even waited to watch star trek nemesis till I could come home and watch it with him.

While there is all these problems with families and economic issues detracting from the way we view life anymore. It made me think of why baseball was so important to me, and it reminded me of what got me through my teenage years and what has helped nurture family relationships.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

fly, fly, fly away....

No, this isn't refering to me being on my trip. Which i'm tottally enjoying. i love nothing more than staying up late and playing cards while listening to Dave Neihaus. It is AMAZING!

But, with the girls off watching the American Idol finale i thought it apporiate that i take some time and give a quick Top 5

Top 5: Thing i love most about the 2009 Mariners

5. The return of Erik Bedard. He has really been a great pitcher this year and will never justify the trade that bill bivasi made for him. but he has been what the Mariners thought he would have been last year. An ace equivelent.







4. The pitching of chris jakubauskas/David Aardsma has been exciting!!










--Chris's curve ball is coming along, and should it ever really progress i believe his ceiling could grow beyond a #5 starter....... Please don't misunderstand me... He has had some TERRIBLE games. But then he has some solid games. tonight was a good one...next week will probley be pathetic. it's kind of a crap shoot..

--As for David has stepped up beyond what we expected. He thought he would be solid but stepping into the closer spot being removed and then stepping back up is awesome. He goes about his buisness and is a professional. I love it and i love seeing him in the ninth even if he blows it!

3. franklin gutierrez in center field.. He has shown why he was the center piece of the off-season movement in seattle. amazing glove, great speed, and is growing as a hitter.

2 .The progression of Wladimir Balentine.. He has flown out twice and struck out in the bottom of the 8th with a runner at third. But, more and more he continues to impress me. I love seeing him hit because i feel he has a chance to do anything when he's up.

1. Russ Branyan. Dude this guy is the old man version of chris davis(without the dazzeling defense). This guy hits the ball a solid mile! I love when he gets a hold of the ball it's hit harder than anyone i have seen on the Mariners in a LONG, LONG time...Infact i think the last time i saw a guy like russ was when Jay was in right field. I love seeing him hit and just like Wlad even though he is a feast or faminie guy ... i still love watching him hit as he makes me feel he can change the game. He makes me buy into this team more than i should, and every team needs one player just like that.












...ps... 4 man--shut out... against the angles .. amazing!!!

Monday, May 18, 2009

Escalates



Wladimir Balentine ... right now is simply just .. yeah .. i'm starting to think he is finally turning a corner becoming a major league valued player. he's had a three great out field assists in the past couple of weeks and he currently has a UZR of +4.1. he's hitting an improved .286/.329/.429 going 20/76 with one home run and 6 RBIs... while it's not eye popping his strike outs have been cut in HALF! down to 15.7 from 32.5 last year. BB/K is up to .45 up from .20 ... he's showing he's hitting his pitches by be cutting his swinging at pitches out of the zone by 4 % ; his overall contact ration has improved by 8%.

Alot of statistics that just says this .. he's making some real contributions to this team and i think that as the season moves on we're going to be alright with taking Left Field from Endy Chavez.

Wladimir has the ability to be a 20-30 Hr guy. and thats something the Mariners need. While he may not hit 30 this year. to have a guy in the line up that's going to hit about 14-20 would be great.



-------

Quick side note with two papers due next week and our road trip to Arkansas i don't know if i'll be on here at all .. but just a heads up

Andy, your a star...

Well .. Geoff Baker from seattle times is reporting there is a possible trade on the front lines between the pittsburgh pirates and the mariners. involving jack wilson and yuni bentacourt.

Seattle times article here

There isn't much else mentioned besides some vague statistical analysis.

While i like jack wilson and he's a huge defensive step up on the UZR front over bentacourt, i don't if i really like this trade. There has been alot of talk on USS Mariners about the need for a left handed infield bat and statisticlly i don't disagree. However, we don't have all the facts and i have to believe the idea of trying to get rid of bentacourt and his huge 8.5 million dollar salery isn't easy. Wilson has a contract through 2011 but has a buy out for the end of the season. lots to think about .... lots to consider.

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Keep Fishing

YEAH! WHATS UP! So I'm not sure how i'm going to do this update.


As promised here is a listing of the mariners pitching situation..... not everything has comments on it ... i'll be going back and updating it on sunday ... so come back and check it...


Seattle Mariners ... as we all know, here are the possible Starting Pitchers

Felix Hernandez - RHP - 22 - He can't become a free agent until 2011... the team should lock him up ASAP.. which i'm sure they trying to do. he's so young and so awesome.

Erik Bedard - LHP - 30 - He's in the last year of his contract. The question is weather to keep him and sign him long term or trade him. doubtful we will get 1/2 of what we gave up for him but it could help in the proccess of reloading the Mariners farm system.

Carlos Silva - RHP 30 - sinker ball pitcher that has just completely gone south for the past two years. Since coming to the mariners he's maintained a WHIP of 1.6 and an ERA of 6.77 he has mysteriously come down with an injury the last month. i suspect we won't see him for probley another month. in which he will most likely move to the bullpen. where he may still find the ability to be successful in small douses.

Jarrod Washburn - LHP - 35 - Ive talked him up and down for all season. he won't maintain it, he's not a cy young pitcher. he's a solid #3 guy thats pitching like it with great defense behind him. don't get me wrong i'm not trying to discredit the guy at all. I just don't think he's "turned a corner" no fly ball pitcher gets away with only giving up 5 Hrs in 7 starts and an average of 6 innings a game. it just dosn't happen. it's going to go back up it's just simple statistics. unless of course he's on HGH.......ala Roger Clemens

Ryan Rowling-Smith - LHP - 26 - Mr.Aussie and fellow blogger has been quiet talked about since the move of Morrow back to the bull pen. in which has lead to some exciment but also doubt on weather or not he can make an impact and how largely on this rotation. Not just for this season but for the future. Of course he is still out and is expected to be out for another couple of weeks. Which kind of scares me because it just keeps getting moved back. I hope he gets well soon.

Chris Jakubauskas - RHP - 30 - he has no real quality pitch. There are times he shows his curve ball has the ability to be a better than average major league pitch but besides that(which comes and goes) his ability to throw strikes and keep his pitches in the zone are what keeps him a viable #5 pitcher.

Garret Olson - LHP - 26 - Olson has an average fastball for a left-hander at 89-92 MPH, though it touched a notch higher than that late in the season. It has a ton of life and he does a good job of keeping it low in the zone. Opponents at all levels had trouble lifting it for extra base hits. Olson is best known for his control of all hit pitches. just like Jakubauskas he should be a mid to later rotation guy.

Jason Vargas - LHP - 26 - Another solid Lefty that needs to work on the way ge aproaches right handed hitters. he finished #8 in the rookie-of-the-year voting in 2005 with florida. He seems like he has regressed in the last few years which is why he was included in the trade for JJ Putz. He has the talent but weather it calculates



----- **In Tacoma Rainiers**----- AAA

Andrew Baldwin - RHP - 27 - Aquired from Philly in the Jamie Moyer trade. I don't know if he'll be of any use. He's spent alot of time in the minors but so far this year he is pitching very well with a 3.43 ERA and a WHIP of 1.22 averaging only 5 innings

Gaby Hernandez - RHP - 24 - averaging 5 innings himself with a WHIP of 1.34 he was rated the best curve ball in 2007 within the florida marlins orginization. He was aquired for Arthur Rhodes at the trading deadline last year. although he was once a touted prospect his skills are regressing and it's been question if he'll ever turn into the pitcher people thought he could become. He has a high ceiling and could at best become a good #3 starter within a rotation, dosn't have ace written on him but he has very good stuff to take to the majors.

Josh Hall - RHP - 29 - he may at one point have been a prospect, now he has just become another arm low risk high reward if he should somehow cultivate while in tacoma.

Luis Munoz - RHP - 27 - Claimed off waviers mid way through 08 from pittsburgh, he started 2009 off in west tennesse he pitched pretty well and got permoted to tacoma. However, since pitching for the rainiers he hasn't pitched very well at all, i'm curious if they will send him back down. Not someone


---------------------Prospect Article


A Really great article on why you can't depend on prospects.

Washington Post Prospects

Seattle Mariners scouting Roster

Thursday, May 14, 2009

its not me its you

I am so very realived. I was starting to tottally get parinoid because everytime i seem to watch the game it's as if every time i sit down to watch a game they blow it in some way. but today i spent 11 hours qualifying with my m-16 and m-9. wasnt able to make the afternoon game in which felix turned in a game in which they needed, only to be disappointed for the second night in a row by brandon morrow...

oh well i guess such as life .. atleast thye did it and i wasn't watching. it makes me feel better....

--------

so i gotta write two upcoming papers for class....

....

i have three over due blogs...the star trek one, the listing of starting pitchers within the organization which is even more ironic being that Erik Bedard is going to miss his start on saturday, and then possible trades in the works.

....
i would really like to do a blog on my fantasy baseball team. As i said previously i'm playing Hayden this week and i would like to discuss what i have up my sleave and what im looking for in the future.

.....
i gotta go to bed.. i have my yearly physical... yeah!

it

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

For those about to rock...

As i write this blog post it seems the Mariners are intent on blowing this game. so i'm just going to assume they are still under .500

All the things being done and all the blog posts being made it makes me wonder whats best to pick on at this point. What hasn't been touched on... well ..

First off a few lessons we all need to know

Jarrod Washburn .. isn't going to keep up with 2.30 ERA lets understand that

Wlad Balentine is showing he can hit big league pitching in a small sample size

We are getting killed by RHP because of the lack of left handed hitters in the line-up

Outside of Gutz, Griffey and Chavez no one is able to work the count and draw a walk.

Players that we had low expectations for like Branyan, Chavez, Balentine and Gutierez has turned out very well.

Players that we had expected to play worth their contract just arn't. Between Lopez, Beltre and Johjima just have slowed things down.

Griffey has slowly gotten better and better despite his low avg he has done an amazing job with working counts and drawing walks.

Our starting pitching is looking kinda thin... with silva looking like he needs to be moved out of the rotation and RR-S not ready to be back until the end of the month we are realying on Jason Vargas (who is doing a pretty good job) and Chris Jaskasbaukas (who is having his ups and downs) with Garret Olson another avilable option if Jak needs to be pulled.

I should really do a blog on our minor league starting pitchers, and some possible trade scenarios i'm behind... soo maybe thats where i'm going .. anyways ...

there we are ...some things to think about for now

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Move Along

So yes, it has been 5 days since my last post.


No, i havn't been hiding in a shell until the mariners broke their horrible losing streak. I actually didn't get to see about half the games and couldn't really commit about most of what was going on besides the fact they couldn't hit a lick!

Jason Vargas going against the rangers and as dave cameron from USS Mariner said "If Vargas can get through six innings and allow four runs or less, he should be congratulated." I'll go a step further and say that he should probley have a party thrown for him. He's a god a huge step ahead of him with Josh Hamilton possibly being back in the line-up.

Dustin Ackley is back in CF for UNC showing his range and athletiscim. As was said on othersites this just further goes to push him to the #2 spot. I am getting excited to hear that.

With Silva, RR-S out ..if another pitcher goes down i suppose that leaves Garret Olson a rotation spot, but i'm really not excited about our future rotation at this point. I realize the organization is in transition but at this point there arn't alot of great SP prospects in the system outside of A-Ball. could be a upcoming blog,

speaking of upcoming blogs i do have one about star trek and baseball incoming. just alittle background for what has made me obsessed about it as much as i am.

So uh with both Celtics-Magic and Lakers-Rockets sitting all tied up i gotta make a quick snippet about this. I think that the Celtics are deep enough to take magic 7 and POSSIBLY win, but i don't see them beating the cav's. Not with the injuries they have had. Magic have the team to beat cleveland we'll see what happens. OH, and speaking of Cleveland. How about that trade last year where Sonics traded Delonte West to the Cavs. Delonte West is showing to be such a great solid player. I'm really amazed by his over all speed and quickness. AMAZING. On the west coast. I think the Rockets can tottally take the Lakers down. I would never could out Ron-Ron and Shane Battier. Such a great deffensive team.


Outside of that not alot going on... i won my Fantasy Game last week. moving me to tied for #1 spot in my division at 3-2 and i'm taking on Hayden this week. Time for some payback....

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Any way you want it....(the story of manny)

Manny being Manny,


So is this the way things will be? Is this the legacy he will be left behind? Does he ruin the chances of the Dodgers making the play offs? Does he make the Hall-of-Fame? will he able to hit 700+ home runs? Will he be chased from the game to live in exile like Palmario, Mcgwire, Bonds, Sosa, or Canseco? These questions and more will be answered on the next episode of MANNY BEING MANNY


Seriously, though who are we kidding. Manny has proved through the years that he is far and beyond the most flakley players of all time. From leaving million dollar checks in his locker for months on end to demanding that he wouldn't sign with boston unless they hired the former cleveland indians clubhouse attended who happened to set up the pitching machines for him.

Bill Simmons wrote a great piece him

It brings the thought to your mind that could manny really cheat? Someone that is just so light hearted and loves to play the game?

Look at his numbers over the years....

Top BA Yrs
2000 - .351
2001 - .349
2009 - .348
1999 - .333
2008 - .332


Top Hr Yrs
2005 - 45
1998 - 45
1999 - 44
2004 - 43
2001 - 41


Top RBI Yrs
1999 - 165
1998 - 145
2005 - 144
2004 - 130
2001 - 125


Top Hit Yrs
2003 - 185
1997 - 184
2008 - 183
2004 - 175
1999 - 174

What to me is amazing is he has years that he jumps statistically but then he levels out and then jumps again. back to where he was.

Take last year for instance, 37 Hrs 104 Rbi's he hits .332

The year prior (2007) he hit 20 Hrs 88 RBIs and hit .296 but still lead his club to a world series win.


then from 96-98 he took another little dip..

33 Hrs 112 RBIs and hit .309 1996
26 Hrs 88 RBIs and hit .328 1997
45 Hrs 145 RBIs and hit .294 1998





In 1997 and 2006 did he take steroids to get his stats back up to what he was the year prior?If that was the case how come he didn't hit 40 or 50 or even 60 home runs the following year. You might say that he didn't try that hard through the first half of the season. If he was serious he really could have hit 50+, okay if thats the case then he suddenly decided that he was going to start taking steroids to make him play better but then didn't want to play quiet as good? yeah he's manny and yeah he's flakey. but..... really??? that makes NO sense. Is this what he has become someone who is desperate to stay ahead? he never has been that person, he's manny. He revolutionized "being yourself"

No one could possibly get away with doing what he does at their job and then have their boss say. "Well that's just Harrison, being, Harrison." ... NO WAY. the bottom line is that he has solidified himself as the best player in baseball. he is a game changer and despite his suspension the NL West is not a race. Manny has already put the Dodgers 6 games ahead of anyone else and while that maybe only a week's worth of games and manny is gone for approx 2 months. Upon Manny's return he will continue on his torrid streak and push the Dodgers to the NLCS and possibly the World Series. While it's only a month into the season, the only team in the National League at this point shows the possibility of contention with them is the St. Louis Cardinals and Albert Pujols. I'm sure this will make my boss(Nick) especially happy but, in all seriousness thats what i think with the way the league is shaping up this season.


Going back to Manny, he has compiled perhapes the greatest stats for a hitter of our generation with the exception of Ken Griffey Jr and Pujols. However, griffey has never lead any of his teams to the play-offs or even to a world series championship. Pujols has however it's been far from dominating like the teams Manny has been apart of. His statistics compare him to the likes of Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams, Willie Mays and Jimmie Foxx. Not a bad bunch of people to compared too.



The bottom line is that there is no creditable evidence statistically that he did infact take steroids. With all the other players there has been some type of tip off statistically. in some form or way. home runs or speed, and in what was said by a couple of the guys at my class during the discussion today. Steroids dosn't give you hand-to-eye coordination...

He's a ligitmate hall-of-famer and one bad decision (one influenced by a credable doctor)

Bottom-line...the Dodgers will go on to be fine and so will Manny. He's a first ballot HOFer and he makes every team he's apart of that much better.

Don't Worry, Be Happy

So....


(do you realize how many of my blog posts that start off like that?)

Every fan in of seattle is sitting like the following...


OMGOSH MARINERS LOST 4 STRAIGHT ... HOLY CRAP!!! PANIC!!!!

.....

Well hold on. Lets really think things through.

First off, we (and by we i mean people that really follow the team very closely) knew a skid like this was eventually going to happen. We knew that the offense wasn't going to constnatly sustain 4 runs a game (29 games so far ... 119 runs scored equals out to 3.9, yes i did round it up. shut up) this team has it's up's and down's and right now we're on the way down.


BUT HOLD ON!

Our Pastor used to say this all the time "Like an wheel while on it's way down and being druge through the mud, it's eventually going to come back up."


Don't abandon ship. (hahahaha Mariners, ship, HAHAHHAHAHAHA)

Let's be straight with ourselves. Today they just shot themselves in the foot repeatedly and they don't have means to continuelly get away with it as much as they have in the last week.
It's catching up to them it comes down to not executing or a play not coming out like we would have liked it.

Today,

1st inning, Branyan and Beltre stranded Ichiro on Third.

2nd inning, Balentine grounds into a double play after a lead off single

3rd Inning, Ichiro doubles with one out then Gutz and Lopez strand him out there

4th Inning, Griffey grounds into double play to end the inning

6th Inning, Ichiro walks, an error gets Gutz on first with no one out then Lopez hits a double play and Branyan pops out to end the threat

7th Inning, Beltre hit by pitch, griffey grounds into double play(again!) BALETIN DOUBLES, Rob Johnson strikes out... again NO RUNS SCORED

8th Inning, one out and ichiro singles, and then Juan Cruz gets the next two outs pretty easily.

9th Inning, Branyan strikes out, Beltre flies out, THEN single for griffey, Balentine walks, Sweeney singles and scores Griffey 1-3 with the tying run at third. Yuni pinch hits and DRAWS ANOTHER WALK... (2 walks in the 9th inning WOW! he's making some hitting adjustments!) then with the bases loaded Ichiro hits a hard ground ball to the short stop leaving the tying run at second base.


WE LOST OUT ON TONS!!! TONS!!! TONS!!! of chances to score. we're not going to be the team we were last year. We have already established we're better than that. But, we're not a 90 win team either. Our offense has got to get itself together.

Jarrod pitched another great game! It really was just sad that the mariners offense couldn't turn his performance to a win, which it should have been.

But, instead of panicing we just need to come to a place where we accept that If we do win the division this year, GREAT! if not, we all need to accept that atleast we were competative and that the goal is to build a team for the LONG haul and not for one year. does anyone remember how we were in it every year from 95-2003?? We went in knowing we could win the division, maybe '98 and '99 weren't so great but atleast we won some great games. thats where we are. we're going to be competative. which again dosn't mean we arn't going to go through some 5 or even 8 game losing strikes. It may happen. But that dosn't change the fact they are still going to go on some 5-10 game tares themselves.

Put down the meatball sub... it's going to be OKIZZAY... i promise

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Every New Day

SOOOoooooo.... while i am making my post right now, please understand taht during the next week and a half of life i probley won't be making many posts...

I know the Mariners just got swept, the NBA/NHL play-offs are in full swing and there is so much to talk about and i have the possibilty of writting about four different blogs right now. However between CLS (combat life saving) Class and i have two papers that are due on monday. I have GCS (ground combat skills) next week, and then the week following we plan on going to grandpa and grumpy crow and meeting aunt christy, aunt melissa and their families.

So with all that said ... posts MAY not come as often as i would like but then again.. who knows ...maybe i'll be able to knock everything out and have plenty of time to update ... regardless just a heads up..

------------------------Outside Blogs

Hayden (my brother, the rangers fan) started up his own blog and i highly encourage you all to take a look. He'll be giving his reviews about baseball and AL West divison, plus some added emphasis on the Texas Rangers.

http://hmcivasterisk.blogspot.com/

----------------------------Video for the day

So, part of the class covered quick cloat and here is alittle video to show you what it all does...

If i hear one thing about the poor stupid pig, i'm going to laugh at you ....

OH, FYI, THIS IS KIND OF GRAPHIC!!!!!

Enjoy!

Monday, May 4, 2009

Missed the boat

For those of you that missed out on my first top-5 of "Quiet things no one ever knows" #3 was Kevin Millwood. I've been saying he's pretty good. Since BLOG 4/21

Runaway

So ... it's 11:47 ... it's time for bed. I obviously have work tommorrow and i need to be up at 6 am .. but there is no way .. NO WAY after that game.

First of all let me say that Kevin Millwood PITCHED HIS HEART OUT! Very much like Jarrod Washburn i don't believe he will maintain his ability to pitch the way he has the first month of April and now a week into May. I just don't think it's possible for him to play at a level this high over a sustained period of time. It's not a knock on the pitchers it's just reference of their talent levels.

Regardless of weather or not he'll eventuall regress, he pitched like an Ace tonight and i'm throughly impressed. He was one of my orignal top 5's and i was initially pretty amazed, but now i'm flabberghasted. CJ "Rick Vaugn" Wilson pitched well to Russ Branyan (who is continued to hit the cover off the ball)

The pitching between frankie and the seattle batters was awesome. Just a game of cat and mouse.

However... the game of cat and mouse WAS RUINED... ABSLOUTELY RUINED!!!! BY PAUL EMMELL the FIRST BASE UMPIRE.

Now i watched and reviewed the call FIVE DIFFERENT TIMES FROM FOUR DIFFERENT ANGLES...Davis(who is a great defensive firstbasemen) DID NOT ... i repeat that DID NOT HAVE HIS FOOT ON THE BASE. IT WASNT TOUCHING IT .. it came off to make the catch ... the catch didn't even beat the runner.


NOW, please do NOT, misunderstand what i'm saying. Because i realize i'm going to have an influx of texas ranger fans to my site shortly to spew their crazy non-sense like greffity let me make this PERFECTLY CLEAR.

Andrus made AN INCREADABLE PLAY ... AMAZING STOP.... GREAT THROW...

Davis showed GREAT AWESOME WONDERFUL RANGE to make that catch.

Here is where the point is ... the throw DID NOT.. beat the runner... the firstbasemen's foot... WAS NOT on the bag. Johjima was safe.

It takes alot of Wak to come out of the dug out and argue the call. I am not sure if it's allowed but i wish we could have had a home plate appeal. I know they allow it in High School play but i'm not sure how it goes down in the Majors and that in and of itself is a huge diss if another umpire over rules you on your own bag during an MLB game.


My point to this run away blog is that a beautifully battled, wonderfully played, ball game but two amazing clubs was ruined by Paul Emmel when he made a snap decision and did not even pay attention to the play.

If joh was safe and not out... runner on first... Gutz looper down the right field line is suddenly HUGE .. because it would have taken joh to third. now with 1st and 3rd and yuni at bat with only one away. if he STILL walks yuni (which let me say THAT was the first time i've seen him take TWO pitches in a row EVER in a game), now ichiro comes to hit with the bases loaded. That line fly out to Byrd brings home Joh and we have a tied up ball game.


Now again time for clairfication i'm not saying we lost because of that one call. Felix pitched very poorly and texas capitlized off several mistakes that King Felix left up in the zone and that happens. he still struck out 9 of 18 outs.. which is awesome and the bull pen was solid for the three innings they were there. I am tottally a fan of Denny Stark and i'm loving his pitching right now.

I really feel we had a chance to do some damage and chase millwood from the game there in the fifth and we rolled over and let him work his way out of it. we swung at bad pitches and he came out attacking hitters. i don't remember him starting off very many counts 1-0. he was just pounding the strike zone tonight and it worked out very well for him tonight. Overall, we had some oppertunities that we didn't cultivate and in the end we lost because of it.

I just hated to see such a wonderfully matched game end the way it did....


Thanks alot, Paul Emmel

The Kingdom... (not kingdome..)

HAPPY KING FELIX DAY!!!!

Mariners vs. Rangers, Felix vs. Millwood.


Brother vs. Brother


For those of you that don't know .. My little brother (hayden) is a huge Rangers fan.


For other people that don't really know ME .. i'm a huge mariner fans...

The divison is up for grabs this year and with a 2 game series looming and the rangers only 2.5 games behind this could very well make for an intersting couple of days.

Time is...

The more and more the season goes I find the progression of players so amazing. Two weeks ago we were ready to package Yuni in a create and ship him back to cuba, Wlad was just taking up a spot on the bench but now and we all were starting to think that maybe JUST MAYBE we could give Carlos Silva a chance.

Now two weeks have passed and we are at a point to where Yuni and his defense is looking a bit better (or maybe it’s just that he’s making an effort), Wlad is hitting the ball hard and Carlos Silva has just about pitched his last game as a starter.


I’m sure we’re going to have some great stories about this group of guys by the end of the year.


I’m really keen on Wlad Balentine right now. His Line Drive hits have gone up by 6% in this short year which you can tell me I’m right or wrong but I believe that is really important to have a good percentage of LD it means he’s hitting the ball hard and that’s what we’ve expect from Balentine. What I’m most impressed about is that he has 4 walks and 5 strike outs in 34 Abs. His contact % has sky rocketed from last year, he is starting to recognize when not to swing at pitches out of the zone. He has 2 2bs and a Homer in 34 Abs hitting .353. It’s a small sampling but with the mariners struggling at the plate it’s been nice to see him get some Abs the past week.
------

Everyone can’t wait for some certain minor league player that for one reason or another is kicking the crap out of pitching or shutting down batters and they just can’t wait to see them as member of “the team of the future” These players include, Gaby Hernandez, Garrett Olson, Michael Saunders, Mike Carp, Prentice Redman, Adam Moore, Carlos Trufinel, Josh Fields, Greg Halman and Phillip Amounte. Well… I present to you the player I can’t wait to watch roam the out field of Safeco. I think Jackie Z was perhaps the most brilliant man when he made the Putz trade. We got Cedeno, Gutz, Olson, Endy, Jason Vargas AND the main point Ezequiel Carrera. THIS GUY IS AWESOME. He’s at AA in west tennesse I got a chance to watch him when he was Montgomery playing the biscuits. Really impressed me tracking down a fly ball and him legging out a triple.


(i had set up some AWESOME brackets setup comparing known outfielders and their scouting reports and numbers in the minors with carerra's however blog spot ruined them... so i will have to try and figure out how to fix it...)

Jay Yencich, who writes Mariner Minors and gives the minor league report for USS Mariner has stated that he may have the “best batting eye in the (farm) system now”

I think he best compares to Carl Crawford but I have yet to really find out how his defense compares to other outfielders in the league. I put the question about his defense to Jay and he responded with “If I recall, he was named the best defensive outfielder in the Florida State League, so he’s no slouch out there in the field.” I don’t know how that will translate out as -/+ UZR but if he is touted as good defensively I’m not going to question it.


Here is a scouting report from scoutingbook

Ezequiel Carrera Born 6/11/1987 (21 years old) OF, SEA
A slightly-built Venezuelan outfielder with wheels, Carrera was signed as a teenaged free agent back in 2005. Recently, hit .263/.344/.393 at high-A ball last year, with 28 steals to go along with it. He's a few years away from showing the left-handed impact bat he promises, but in the mean time he's a solid defensive outfielder with plus speed, and that's not a bad thing to have tucked away in your system. A natural center fielder with a good arm, he'll probably repeat high-A this year for his new team while continuing to work on his batting approach.

This years stats

AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS SH SF GIDP OBP SLG OPS
.359 22 78 23 28 3 2 0 12 19 14 5 5 3 0 2 .490 .449 .939



Something important to point out is the fact he's 4/5 while Stealing bases on RHP but he's 1/5 w/ LHP on stealing bases. as the scouting report says he's only 21 years old, he as some time to get better on the basepaths and he is still 7th in the league in SBs.

He's first in the league in Base on Balls (walks) and first in Runs scored.


With everything considered, he may not be a five-tool player and he may not even get beyond AAA but he shows a ton of promise, and it makes me laugh at what we all got for JJ. Which will be another post entirely!

Saturday, May 2, 2009

Prisoner of Today..

Well today is shapping up to e such a wonderful day.

Mariners won in the bottom of the ninth last night which always gives you a great feeling in the morning. They are up by 3.5 games over the Rangers.

But tonight is going to be great not only is game 7 of the Celtics - Bulls .. but the Mariners are also the featured game on MLB TV at the same time against the A's.

With everything going on tonight the pre game .. game will be the Capitols vs. Penguins in game 1 of the Eastern Confrences Semi-Finals.. and more importantly Sidney Crosby (pens) vs. Alex Ovechkin. I'm not a huge hockey fan. But this whole series is shapping up to be great. It's like having a Lebron - Kobe playoff series. no matter what teams they play for the whole series itself will be interesting.


While i am waiting for the game to start i am cleaning the kitchen and watching the epic replay of the 1992 Braves vs. Blue Jays world series on MLB tv. I thought this as a kid and i still think Otis Nixon looks as if he's in his 60s. Cito Gaston looks like he's 20 years younger than nixon. Then you watch Nixon run he looks like one of those African Bushmen that are like 90 years old. he just was so fast. It's increadable...


Crosby scores... 1-0 Pens over Caps.. 15:50 1st Peroid. like i said .. this should be good.

7 Hrs and 45 Mins til Washburn vs. Cahill ...



I still really gotta mow the lawn .. i don't know if thats going to get done..

Friday, May 1, 2009

To Our Visitors

Hey ALL,

I've noticed that we've had some visitors on the blog lately. Please leave some comments. Let me know you've taken a look. If you didn't even read anything ... leave a "Hello" or even tell me my blogs have been stupid. I really would just like to see some feed back from visitors.

Thanks!!