Thursday, August 6, 2009

This Conversation Is Over

So, I’ve seen a lot of people recently say some stupid things. Something like Jack Hannahan is a bad player…


I did alittle tweeting previously but decided that with the down time at work this morning I would take a bit of time and show you why he is better than most people think, and why he will give Tui some serious opposition come Spring Training for that starting job. Because let’s face it Adrian Beltre is not going to resign with us.


Jack is 29, (ironically has the same birthday as me, not the reason I’m defending him) and he will be hitting 30 during spring training. This is important to know and acknowledge when writing about someone who is going to be comparative in a third basemen spot against someone who is 7 years his younger. I’m not in any way saying he is the long term solution. But, Maybe he’ll help push Matt Tuiasosopo into being that Third basemen of the future.


Jack Hannahan is currently hitting wOBA of .286, BB% of 10.2 and has a WAR of 1.3, what is even more confusing is he is hitting a solid .285 BABIP and the lowest LD% of his 3 year career at 18.9%.  Why is he not a better hitter? Why is everyone so low on him? Simply because his K percentage is stuck in between 25-30%, which really is disturbing for someone who is not a home run hitter. Should he cut that down I think we would see a lot more production out of his bat. However, with the exception 3 game apperence with the Tigers in ’06 he has never posted anything lower than a 27.1% strike out rate (to include his time in AAA)…hopefully the M’s can fix that.


ZIPS has Hannahan finishing the year some where around .296 wOBA which puts him in the Kevin Kouzmanoff and Emilio Bonifacio company. However both of those guys walk about 4-6% less and yet striking out less too. While Kouzmanoff isn’t a bad person to be compared with Bonificio is, however don’t be too concerned because this is all offensive comparions.


Offensively when he’s on he’s a C+ at worse he’s a D-  … Bad player? I wouldn’t go that far.


Defense is a whole other story.  This guy is one of the best defensive players in the league, he has a UZR/150 of 26.8 and a career 16.5 at Thirdbase. He is currently posting a 11.9 Fielding RAR which compared to the rest of the league ranks second only to Ryan Zimmerman’s 12.7. While Beltre’s career line is (only) (I’m a jerk lol)  13.5 UZR/150 he has also fielded approx. 1300 more games at third than Hannahan.


While it’s really only a sample size compared to what Beltre has done, it’s enough to know what we are going to get. Hannahan is a good defensive players one of the best in the league. Yes his bat is below average but, I hardly would call him a bad player…




Reverse This Curse

So, after making breaking my record of most blogs in a month i seem to have all but disappeared from the blogsphere. No choice of my own as this is perhapes one of my favorite past times. However, with all the turn over at work it has left me extremely worn out and not alot of time to make entries.

Here are a few bullet points on whats going on around here.

  • I was going to make a blog post yesterday about what to look at the rest of the season but there have been so many i'm kind not wanting to join the masses... just feels redundent

  • Russell Branyan has actually been pretty average defensively which is a shocker... 0.2 RAR and 0.0 UZR...

  • The Mariners won two games in a row and actually made a dent in the deficent towards first place...until they lost today... oh well.. -9 games back...only 6.5 back from the WC not that it matters.

  • Erik Bedard should be let go. He is better off going to another team. Too many expectations and with the injuries there is no point paying him to be on the DL when we have other holes on this team that need to be addressed

  • Awesome link about DH's and the HoF

Sunday, August 2, 2009

Oh What A Night

So, the season is looking as if its over, and we need to have some reason to keep us somewhat invested in each game. I think that USS Mariners brought up a great point of watching for Ian Snell and that's where alot of people are turning their attention.

I am as well excited for Mr.Snell's first start and to see how he does. However, i will be turning my attention to another player Mr. Jose Lopez. Lopez while starting to show more and more offensive capabilities is an interesting situation. Most scouts see Lopez diminishing capabilities at second base. His lack of range will eventuall push him to a corner position and while there will still be some questions about his defense the bigger question still will be his bat.

This year he has managed to procure a UZR of 0.8 and Frar of -2.0 while not fabulous its about as average or just below average as your going to get.

Jack Zduriencik realizes the situation and has already been connected in several deals to aquire a better second basemen. Ben Zorbist this off season had been reportedly connected in several deals, Rickie Weeks from Jacks prior organization has also been in the mix and of course prior to being delt to San Fran everyone was wanting to get Freddy Sanchez. However with all these deals no one has conciously put together Jose Lopez is going to be replaced.

Of course everyone will point to the fact that Jose has been one of the best hitters for the very weak line up. He has been effective hitting a wOBA of .329 up to this point and a solid slugging percentage .463 which places him near the top of the league for second basemens.

However when comparing him with those other second basemen's in the Majors he ranks in the middle tier of wOBA ... mainly because he is last in BB% he like his former double play partner swings at everything... and while being a good contact hitter (7% higher than the rest of the league) only has a BABIP of .271

Fan graphs did a post in late june about the need for seattle to upgrade its middle infield defensively

This offseason is going to come and i would be really surprised if Aidrian Beltre resigns to play 3b but ill be equally surprised if Jose Lopez is here after next year. He may stay as an insurence to Matt Tuiasosopo to make sure he is ready for the daily job at third.

It would be nice to make a move here and bring in either a stop gap while we wait for Carlos Triunfel to take 2b or pick up someone from another system. This off season Jose Lopez has more value than he ever has.

Friday, July 31, 2009

You Shook Me All Night Long

So, there are comparisons to be made and some things to be discussed with Luke French and Jarrod Washburn but also between Mauricio Robles and the three prospects given up just two days ago.

First off Luke French seems like we didnt get much for Washburn initially until you starting looking at French and then realize holy crap we got a 23 year old, 6 year controlled, (cheap) version of Washburn.

What most people have forgotten was that Washburn isn't a number one or two. He's a 3 or 4, that pitches to contact. He is having a great year, but thats also due to the fact of the outstanding defense behind him. Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, we have all heard this argument before. Either your with it or you think the dolphin is magnificant.

But French while they are calling him an extreme fly ball pitcher does worry me a bit with his high LD%, his GB/FB averages through the past two years have been pretty average. He pitches to contact just like Washburn and he depends upon the guys around him. JUST LIKE WASHBURN. However with Adair i think he can be turned into the same type of succesful pitcher Washburn has been this year, and be a solid starter for us.

Robles, has been compared by Jay Yenchic to Mikael Cleto, who we got from the Mets organization with the JJ Putz deal. Lots of strike outs ... um.. but lots of walks. He is still trying to gain his command and needs to work on a third pitch to get him to stay in the starting rotation.

Jay also respond to my question of comparision by saying
"Definitely better than Adcock as it stands, and could be better than the other two as well. He's a higher risk arm than all of the above, but the potential payoff is enormous and he's shown signs of recent development/improvement. Getting French was nice, but Robles could be a real steal."

Also a really good link by "SeaTown81" in the USS Mariner forums...

Stand by ... Shannon Dryer thinks this may not be the last move of the day for the M's ... and im inclined to agree with her.

So Long, Farewell

So, i was wrong and Jarrod Washburn was traded. Me being wrong is nothing but a good thing. I felt if i didnt state it enough between twitter and the blog, that the Mariners needed something... SOMETHING, ANYTHING for Washburn. He was not going to return as a Mariner, and if he did it wasn't going to be on any discount.

The reports from New York were that the Mariners were asking for Phillip Hughes or Joba Chamberlin... people balked at this idea escpecially after the trade for French and Robles. But i think they really tried to see what was the best possible avenue, and i think they got it. Obviously i wanted a future all star, but lets no kid ourselves. While he wasn't horrible his last few years were not great.

So long Mr. Washburn, farewell, auf weidersehen good-bye

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Rock - N - Rule

Jack wilson was someone i felt should be a last scenario type option. I felt even at 31 he was too old for what we were doing here. not to mention that he has been injury prone. I thought the point was to get younger and more athletic. But in fairness Jack Wilson has consistantly been solid on defense.

Wilsons UZR for the past three years comes out to -0.1 , 9.7, 12.5 ... much better than yuni's -10.6 , -12.6, and -1.1 ... thats a really big difference! you thought you saw a difference with Ronny Cedeno playing over Yuniesky. Wait til JackW comes to town.(BTW what is the deal with all these guys named "Jack" coming to town.. should i be worried)

Yuni did have a wOBA* of .285, .316, .323 the past three seasons

Jack's looks like this .300, .293, and .335 ... while he is starting to show a bit more with the bat ...

Jack and Yuni share the same lets swing alot at pitches additude 51.4/51.5 (the percentage of pitches the batter swings at) ... league average is currently 45.9

Wilson walks just a bit more than Yuni with a 5.3/3.7 ... while hte league average is still about 4 points higher.

He shows a bit more discipline then Yuni, and may just fit into that two hole that Don Wak wanted for Bentacourt this past spring, but couldn't maintain due to his horrible pitch selection. Maybe Jack can fit that bill?

If so it would push Russ and Gutz down to the 4/5 slots and put griffey or lopez at the 6/3 spots. it really has the potential to help our line up out alot more than most people think.

Just because Jack Wilson isn't Jason Donald, Reid Bragnic, JJ Hardy or Escobar don't give up on him. He will bring some real value to the team. more than you just might think

New Medicines

Okay ... Here is the deal. First off im gonna talk about the trade and then ill talk about the game today.

First and foremost... lets all agree.. with the brewers doing a faceplant (aka pulling a seattle mariner) against the Washington Nationals they are looking to have a worse shot than we do at the post season...

Okay maybe thats a bit drastic but regardless, they won't be making a move for Jarrod Washburn. Period end of story and if you think otherwise ... well.. then we think differently.

I was really feeling just a solid yuck from the trade today, for a number of reasons. I really liked all those prospects that we gave up. Ive mentioned my infatiation with Adcock a few times, and while he had been moved to the bullpen due to his lack of control. He still had alot of potential.

Brett Lorin i reallly loved and while i still have to keep looking up how to spell "Pribanic" i was actually checking up on his starts in the minors .. which i only do with a few people. i thought he had been pitching pretty well this year...

and then ol' Jeff Clement. Im sorry to see him go in the sense i think he has a future has a professional hitter. i think he'll need to get to the AL and quick. The Mariners did allow in any way Clement being traded to come back to haunt them, the only thing is they really hurt his overall chance to land with a team. i honestly dont know the pittsburgh situation in the minor league system. they seem to content to use him as a Catcher. I think thats a huge mistake and they should be trying to quickly acclimate him to first base. I did notice that ESPN had him placed a first basemen.

Ultimately though, i started thinking, Ian Snell is 27. under contract for potentially the next 3 years and resonable priced. I was reviewing the potential off-season starting pitching free agent market. Its not very impressive, and became suddenly aware sometime around 35 minutes in that Jack was going to be making a move either now or in the off season for a starting pitcher.

Im all in favor of the aquisition for Snell, good move. However, i felt we may have over paid. Then i started reading what some of the fans said and i took in to account what Jack Z said and you know. Three SINGLE A prospects. who knows whats going to happen to them. they won't be close to the majors for another 2 years AT LEAST. who knows whats going to happen.

Plus someone who fits the bill now for short stop. Someone who's excited for play for a post season. I think Wilson is a good character guy also for this team who will lose both Sweeny and Griffey next year. I think he should fit in and take to the mold quickly.

This trade is starting to look better to me ...

---------THE GAME TONIGHT-----------

okay, because this post is turning into a monster ill write something up after the game tommorrow night. Regardless just know i tottally approve and the last two nights was what i have been expecting from my Mariners...

p.s. i love Michael Saunders...

Champagne for My Real Friends, Real Pain for My Sham Friends

unlike the random music video's i post like once every two weeks or so .. this is has a story.

Being deployed i dont have very good bandwith ... frankly im lucky to have any!

So to keep up with my Mariners i have to listen to the KIRO streaming radio off (thanks dad) ...

In the back ground of one of KIROs comercials was this song and i spent nearly three days trying to figure out where it was from and where i had heard it because it was a song i was familar with.

Ladies and Gentlemen the song ive had stuck in my head for the past three days...



Pirates Get:

SS Ronny Cedeno
1B/C Jeff Clement
RHSP Nathan
RHSP Aaron Pribanic
RHSP Brett Lorin

Mariners Get:

SS Jack Wilson
RHSP Ian Snell

The Mariners gave up three of
their top five or six starting pitching prospects in exchange for a defensive
shortstop and a volatile starter. I’ll need to mull this over. I’m not sure this
is the type of ‘buy’ the Mariners needed right now.

At first glance, the
Pirates got an awesome haul for Wilson and Snell. Snell is going to be the key
for the Mariners. If the team can get him pitching up to his potential at the
big league level then it should be worth it.

I’ll have a more complete
reaction as well as brief scouting reports on those we lost a little later.

From Jon Shields at Proball NW...

Basic summary: I think we overpaid, unless it comes that out the Pirates are
picking up half of Wilson’s 2010 salary or something. I liked Snell as a good
buy-low candidate, but I’m not sure this is buying low. We gave up a lot for two
guys with a lot of question marks.

-Dave Cameron, USS Mariners

these guys both nailed my reaction...

Monday, July 27, 2009

Im so sick

So, with all this busy trade deadline speculation im kind of at my wits end of waiting for the Mariners to do something. i have been waiting in reality for two months. I really thought that they would make a move prior to the deadline... and well that obviously did not happen.

There was all that talk of Jarrod Washburn going to Millwaukee and that obviously did not happen.

Oh but Morrow is going to Cleveland.....


i have a head ache and im just going to roll over and go to bed and get up in the morning when all this is over.

Im glad Christmas only comes once a year and atleast you can circle the date!

Saturday, July 25, 2009


So, last nights game did more than just put us one more game back in the standing. Unfortunately it also show cased how poor Miguel Batista really is. hopefully that didnt hurt his trade valule too terrible much, but at this point i dont know believe we are going to get anything for him of value.

He had done a good job of keeping his nose clean and only allowing onesey and twosey runs to score. which made his ERA 4.13 (which was under 4) look good. however, the deeper stats truely revieleved who he was...

tERA of 5.34 and pRAA of -4.9 he was worse than a league average bull pen reliver and we were looking, praying and yerning to get something anything in return. Now, that thought has perished with the back to back long and i do mean LONG balls.

osta la vesta, baby

Wednesday, July 22, 2009


So, like i said on my Twitter account. What would we do without Russell Branyan. Amazing stroke, as one USS Mariner commenter said... that swing is worth more than one win!

Anyways... interesting note on Jason A Churchill's twitter account. A rival scout believes the mariners to make not just one more but two in the next week and change. one surrounding our line up and one with out rotation, with bedard expected to stick around.

One would assume that it would lead to Washburn being traded but im not entirely sold on that idea just yet. i think the clock for Morrow is ticking and while he has shown some ability. He may not be as untouchable as he once was. Espcially with the emergence of Jason Vargas.

Also of course with the Olson melt down and RRS headed to the fourth spot there is discussion about weather Vargas, Morrow or CJ will get the nod for the 5 spot on sunday. My inclination is Jak will get it. Giving Vargas some time to rest his arm until August so that we have him to make the last push of the season.

I really feel that jakubauskas is a solid choice for us. while he isnt going to be any type of genius you will get from him what you expect. and thats a mini of 5 solid innings.

back to the trading deadline ... do you think there is a fourth option for the starting 5? Jack Z like to surprise and while i dont expect to add someone to the starting rotation through a trade. I really wouldnt be surprised as he has a habit for pulling a rabit out of his hat.

Washburn going tommorrow in the rubber match... GO MARINERS GO!

Hey there Delilah

So, what to sya what to say. Oh, i know the mariners dodge a bullett... acutally more like it just missed the heart or an arterie by a matter of inches. its crazy. im so glad to hear gutz is alright. Last night was a real scare of a situation seeing him layouting out like 1995 ken griffey. it was sad and scary all at the same time. But as Larry Stone reports he merely suffered bruising on the ribs and shoulder. Thank goodness...

but as was discussed on Lookout Landing despite the injury and despite the thrashing of the first two innings and us losing ground on our mortal enemeys the Rangers and Angles things could have been alot worse.

Last night felt like in the first couple of innings that i wasnt watching just a game. i was watch the rest of the season. the fact that they battled back and turned last night into a serious game is amazing and it showed what heart they have and the fact that they REALLY do have a shot at this seasons AL West championship. while they may not win it. they are going to keep fighening the rest of the way, and tonight with King Felix on the mound ...i feel more than confident ... almost cocky about the game. Here we go. this season just got awhole lot more if it was dull?

Monday, July 20, 2009

Beat it

So, Its been a few days... really glad to see the M's rip up those Indians after dropping the first game. Felix and Jarrod both looked really solid. However i must say i was pretty ... i guess distraught would be the word over Erik's lack of performance.

There are just a few things that are on my mind about him

A) i don't see how we can keep him.

With his injuries and lack of real consistancy, i just can't see how he helps the mariners in the log run. I would rather have Garrett Olson and Jason Vargas give me 30 good outings than 15 great outtings from Erik Bedard.

B) I dont see us getting much value in return.

Every start that he has i think of Dave Cameron's blog saying that him and washburn could get us JJ Hardy. Now you all know that i'm for JJ Hardy but would perfer someone younger and under team control longer. But heck at this point i'm all for it. I just want to get something for what we gave up.

Kind of just felt like i should leave something here so no one thinks i'm dropping this. Just been really busy with trying to put some stuff up on Bleacher report.

Work has been so laxed that right now it's given me time to do it. Come the switch on sunday to days. it's going to be pure chaos. Don't know how much i'll be writting then.

Still planning on moving the site overall to wordpress but that is going to be some time i think september 1st is a good date to set ... with alot of things to consider.

Still trying to come up with a real MLB Blog sounding name... 'Homi and the Mariners' just dosn't cut it. Any ideas???

Saturday, July 18, 2009

This aint a scene its an arm race

King felix has taken his throne, Jarrod Washburn and the improved defense has caused his stock to fly higher than Microsoft, and Erik Bedard, well when he's been healthy this year he's been lights out. Which has given the Seattle Mariners an amazing starting three that is just as good if not better than any other starting three in all of major league baseball.

But as the old addage goes your only as strong as your weakest link. Well, the weakest link has been anything but the starting rotation. The Mariners have a combined pitching WAR of 10.3 which places 10th of all major league baseball and a RAR of 81.3 placing 11th.The Mariners have gotten amazing pitching from Jason Vargas, signs of life from Jakubauskas, Olson and Morrow and since returning from the DL Ryan Rowland-Smith has posted a FIP of 3.61 in AAA. While there are only two more rotation spots avilable this problem is the type that most GM dream of and with the need for starting pitching from top end teams the Mariners have put themselves to be sellers and buyers in this exculusive market.

While having five good live arms is great. There are currently only two spots avilable and lets review the current caniadates for the job

Chris Jakubauskas - Chris came out to spring training this year and beat the door down throwing strikes. He impressed management so much that he won a bull pen job, and when RR-S went down was quickly insereted into the starting rotation. While he has been mediocre at best with a FIP of 4.68, and being already 31 the thought that he dosnt have much left for improvement. However, looking back on his minor league stats he has continued to show improvement at each level. At 29 he posted an average looking 3.73 FIP in AA. One year later he was turning heads with a 2.86 in 6 games started, earning a promotion to tacoma. While he didnt do anything impressive he did post a 3.45 FIP. He came out and showed he can compete at a MLB level this year and with a curve that boarder lines above average. Also he posted a 3.2 RAR while starting vs. 1.6 from the pen indicate that he is more comfertable starting.

Garrett Olson - While not doing anything to blow anyone over(with the exception to the three straight outs with the bases loaded coming in from the pen vs. Texas last week.) Olson has been consistant and shown that he is able to be a productive pitcher despite posting a FIP of 5.71. he did post a FIP of 3.47 in AAA and while he has struggled while starting his relieving RAR of 2.1 shows promise. While he has an outrageous 12.5% HR/FB rate (2.5-3% higher than his career avg) it should eventual settle down around 8 percent and that should see his FIP drop and match his sparkling 1.27 WHIP. showing that he pitches to contact and is suseptiable to streaks. I believe Garrett is better suited for the bullpen but has shown hints of promise.

Brandon Morrow - Wow .. i really should do this one last but hey, sometimes you just need to get this one out of the way. Brandon has not looked healthy at all this season and with his bullpen implosion followed by yet another episode in the epic saga of do we or dont we start him. Brandon has the ceiling of a #2 or #3 starter. While some maybe getting tired of the antics and drama that surrounds his situation, not to mention this seasons poor statistical showing. we should flush the first half of this season down the drain and start all over once the AAA season is over and rosters expand. Barely having even 50 IP within the minor leagues we dont have an efficient sample of what he can really do on a pro level. While he's been poor in certain outings he looked brilliant in others. Which leads people to suspect once we gains control of his pitches he will be another feared arm within the seattle arsnel
Jason Vargas - A throw in to many of us during the JJ Putz deal. Jason is showing us how valuable he really is. A former canidate for the rookie of the year in 2006 he lost all of 2008 due to injuries and has comeback in a mighty way in 2009. posting a FIIP of 4.71 and worth a RAR of 4.1 with a whip of 1.35. Vargas is reemerging as the pitcher people thought he could be back as a florida marlins prospect. While he wont be anything better than a #4 pitcher. Vargas has shown to be an excellent addition to this team and at 26 still is hitting his prime years.

Ryan Rowland-Smith - A local farm hand from the land down under. RRS has worked his way into the hearts of many a Seattle fan. Despite the poor outing shown in Oakland Ryan has shown he has the talent and tools to be a starting pitcher for this club. He has regained his velocity(89-92 mph) down at tacoma and since coming back from the DL has posted a 3.61 FIP and a WHIP of 1.32 showing his consistancy to thrown strikes and keep runners off base. Last year in 2008 Rowland-Smith has pitching RAR of 8.4 and while not quiet being worth 1 WAR there is potential for him to succeed within this rotation.

My final sumation is that our rotation should look like this

Felix, Bedard, Washburn, Vargas, and Jakubauskas .. with Rowland-Smith and Olson in the bullpen and Morrow spending time in AAA gaining control of his pitches. Once Morrow completes his assignment and shows his control. i believe he should bump Jakubauskas from the rotation back to the bullpen.

This situation shoud allow the Mariners to make a move this trade dead line and bring in someone now just for now at SS but for the future as well.

Friday, July 17, 2009


So, today Larry Stone wrote this article in the Seattle times and I actually thought it was going to come alittle sooner such as yesterday after the writting appeared on the wall. But, Julio Lugo Boston Red Sox's SS is DFA (desginated for assignment), if it wasn't already it's apparent that they want to drop him like a bad habit. It's been reasonably established that they would even be willing to eat his salary to dump his roster spot. Things would have to happen rather quickly should a deal be made because boston wants to activate Clay Buchholz, Mike Lowell and Jed Lowrie according to MLB Trade Rumors

Now, Larry Stone suggested that this maybe someone that the mariners may want to take a flyer on with limited investment and potential high turnout. Now, I'm not against giving guys a chance. I love the Russell Branyan move, and honestly i wish they would give Chris Shelton more oppertunity. But, and that is one huge Mariah Carey sized BUTTTTTT ... Julio Lugo is at best a very slim barely above league average bat with a below average glove for the past two years.

Fan graphs did a great analysis on him here , pretty much summing up what i said. But also worth a look.

I would much rather drop Bedard and Washburn for either JJ Hardy, Reid Brignac or as Larry has suggested prior Jason Donald... this solves not just an immedate hole but a future one as well. With the immpeding loss of Erik Bedard we need to get back some type of compensation and a B level draft pick just isn't going to cut it after giving up Adam Jones and Chris Tilman.

Sure you may say that Jose Lugo is hitting better than JJ Hardy, and you would be correct. Jose Lugo IS infact out hitting JJ Hardy

JJ Hardy .307 0.2 -6.6

Julio Lugo .332 0.2 -1.8

But with that considered Julio Lugo's defense has been TERRIBLE... with a UZR of -8.2 in a small sample size of this year... and has always been an average to below average short stop.

JJ Hardy meanwhile has averaged a UZR of 9.2 for his past five seasons and currently has a UZR of 8.0 ...

JJ Hardy is also 27 vs. Lugo who is 33 ... JJ hardy has is probley currently hitting his prime ... vs. Lugo who is not going to help you defensively (and thats with a pitch to contact pitching staff that we have) and he's going to only get worse.

But just so you dont think i'm all about only going after JJ Hardy ... i've got my own opnion about who we should aquire....

Jason Donald .... there was a rumor that there may have been a deal for the Red Soxs to aquire him for Brad Penny. I'm sorry Jarrod Washburn is a MUCH better pitcher and fit for the phillies team and defense. Is he not worth the same amount ... maybe not? Send Greg Halmaan their way or a pitching prospect of sometype ... either way we get back something we need now. Not just a stop gap. I thought the idea was not just selling but also trying to buy...

Just some thoughts on this quiet friday night/afternoon pending on where you are

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Crazy Train

So--- I've been preaching it for approximately four months now and the philledalephia phillies are finally going to do the enevidable and sign Pedro Martinez. Honestly this is two months(at a minimum) over due. I dont think its too late i think honestly if anything he's going to be nice and rested and that he's going to be giving them that top end rotation assitants. Is he still a #1 starter? No, I dont think he is.. but is he better than who they have. MOST CERTAINLY...lets take a look shall we?

Since they've kind of been doing the round robin thing for their 5th starter since Chan Ho Park was a found to be a complete waste and gave up his spot.

Cole Hamals 1.38 3.90 4.10 6.8

Jamie Moyer 1.49 5.84 5.87 -12.4

Joe Blanton 1.37 4.74 4.82 -1.3

J A Happ 1.17 4.51 4.60 0.8

Brett Myers 1.35 6.22 6.25 -10.6

All these pitchers have been is average... and really jamie moyer and brett myers have been below average. While not being Carlos Silva bad, they havn't been burning it up either. So now they have a 5th starter who will perform in my opnion atleast league average, maybe even better.

I bring this all up because, I like this signing but if they think this is going to get them into the promised land they are sorely mistaken. While i think that Erik Bedard would be a terrible fit personality wise, i think he would completely give the phillies a finale lift they need to be legit world series contenders. They have the bats, even with Jimmy Rollins MIA. But, JA Happ is already pitching and getting very lucky. While his ERA is just below 3 this FIP as shown above is nearly a run and a half over that, his LOB% is 8 points higher than normal and he is going to regress it's only a matter of time, and to expect Jamie Moyer to be go much further would be just down right crazy. They need someone and while i don't think they want to mortage the farm for Roy Halladay i think that Erik Bedard would be a must better fit for their team not to mention cheaper.

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Question the Answers

I'm considering moving the site to Wordpress...

There maybe a misconception that i was thinking of going pro blogging or something to that affect. Fear not i am far from taking that route however it dosn't mean that i dont want my site to have a professional feel.

I really like the avilable themes and alot of the capabilities Wordpress seems to offer. Alittle more far reaching than that of Blogspot.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Futures - All/Star Break Thoughts

So, as the season is at its half way point and they start looking forward. I also am looking to the future, the future of this blog. I really want to take it abit more seriously on the baseball side. I dont mind having a blog for occasional blah blah use. You know?

But, i really want to set up a blog/site that is A, more geared towards gaining readers and B, producing better content. I'm not sure how to do this currently but i really think that this is something i want to pursue.

I see how much energy Dave Cameron and Derek over at USSM, Jason Churchill with Prospect Insider, Jay Y. and the Mariners Minors and then also Matt and Jeff over at Lookout Landing they all use. Im not looking to try and compete but rather start to give back to the community in more professional manner. I don't mind that i write in this blog and its for my friends. But i want to do more than just reach out to my friends i want to reach out to people like me that have a similar goal of disecting and analyzing of baseball.

Thoughts ...

Buddy Holley ...

Monday, July 13, 2009

Sweet Emotion

Okay, I realize being a Mariner fan that this could come off as biast and "homer" type behavior. But, I really didnt start thinking about this until Hayden mentioned something the other day. He said, "Boy, Branyan totally got screwed out of the home run durby like Ian Kinsler for an All-Star spot" my intial reaction was "Well, whatever, you know" I thought "He should be taking time off during this three day period and get pumped up for the second half. But seriously ... this guy has hit some massive bombs! Most recently off the facade of the "Hit-it-here Cafe". The guy is the equivilent to Barney off of "How i met your mother" He comes up with the most ridiculous shots. You think oh this is the time he is going to strike out and he hits yet another bomb.

Currently Russell the muscle is ranked at #4 in the American League for most "No Doubt" home runs. How exactly no doubt home runs are calculated, I don't know. I just know that he hits them a freakin long way. With an avg length of 416 feet. Thats freakin long and freakin 19 feet further than the avg major leaguer home run...

How could you want someone like Joe Mauer over a pure unadultrated slugger like Russell Branyan. Thats like saying ... im going to go ahead and choose Peter Peterilli to run hiliary clintons campain over Nathan. Like Seriously?? Your going to choose the guy who has every power except for having a steady personality over the guy that rules at politics?? Okay for those that arn't "Heroes" fans .. thats like choosing the best avilable stock brocker to sell reality. Its just dumb...

But dont just take my word for it here is Mauers home run stats.

Mauer averages home runs of just 390 in length. Now im not here to criticize the guys homers. Heck hes a great hitter. I think the best catcher in baseball right now. But, look in a HOME RUN competition dont you want a HOME RUN HITTER?

Bud Selig again you fail.

Saturday, July 11, 2009

Paperthing Hymm

Well ... another day another move by the Seattle Mariners. Giving up a mid level prospect for a solid defensive third basemen. Here is what is being said about it....

- USS Mariner

- Lookout Landing

- NWProball

- Shannon Drayer

- Seattle Times

- Tacoma News Tribune

.... got to love these moves ... he's a solid upgrade over Woodward ... it also in my mind rules out the possibility of a play for Garrett Atkins ... Jon Shields over at NW Proball wrote about why we shouldnt be aquiring atkins i whole heartly agree, and i think now with the left handed Hannahan that its mote point at the moment...

In other news Brandon Morrow is sent down to AAA ... alot of all though of it between Jason Vargas and Garrett Olson with Olson shifting the bull pen and vargas going down but i guess that Vargas has shown alot of redemable qualities and the defense has sure made him look like the Vargas of when he was a prospect with the Marlins. Dont let him or me fool you. He's only a back end starter. but for what he's being asked to do he's doing a great job...

But back to Morrow ...hopefully and let me reitereate my as i type this ... HOPEFULLY ... this will signal the end of the back and forth ...will he or wont he Brandon Morrow saga .. Dont get me wrong i love sagas... LOVE THEM... Star Wars.. the best all time .. Indiana Jones ... well is that really a saga ... anyways ... the point being is this has been continued to be mis handled and i love how its been pointed out that Brandon's curve is not big league ready and its not a good pitch.


While i was going to write on another topic ive had something thats just been bugging the crap out of me of late.

I recently went out to Seattle Times - Seattle Mariners forums and looking and reading through some of the fan posts i found some or a few of the fans just didnt really care for Don Wakamatsu... which really has bothered me. Mainly because i feel he has done an amazing job with this crew so this season. He has gotten great play and even in some cases over achiving from certain ball players. He has the team playing above .500 for the season .... a season following in which they just lost over 100 games... What is the fans beef with ol' Wak?

A few of the comments where that he has costed the Mariners games in the late innings due to mis managing games...

Is there a current way to measure the ability of a manager statistically... it makes me wonder this would be done ... maybe its something i should pursue ...

Friday, July 10, 2009

hit the road jac...yuni

What else can i say ... the mariners make a trade .... really THE trade... Jack Zduriencik really has a knack for getting the greatest value. As some reports in the past year the Royals had been offering as much as billy butler ... and as suspected Yuni's stock has fallen quiet significantly, HOWEVER, we get the Royals TOP,best, pitching prospect in their system. We also got a nice little left handed flame thrower from the bull pen. If only one of them, make AAA this trade was worth everything that we gave up.

The real story i think is that even though we are eating a chunk of salary it does in turn, free up some space on our end. you know ... the same of about 5 million dollars...which is funny because that is alittle more than what jack wilson or freddy sanchez will cost for the rest of the year.... while everyone seems to be on the sanchez train i have to think there is more than just jack wilson or freddy sanchez. Dont get me wrong ... they are great players ... but something just dosnt click with me. I really think we should be going after a short stop. Sanchez is great but he wont be playing short for any amount of time and Cedeno (or as lookout landing often referes to him as Ronny :(edeno lol...)

Both Ryan Divish and Geoff Baker eluded to there possibly being a third team and im still riding the rockies-pirates-mariners train but there is a few more times that are interested in freddy sanchez. Hes a great player but unless we are completely done with beltre or lopez he ultimately dosnt fit in to the seattle scheme beyond 8 weeks...

Okay .... more on the trade.

Here is what ive got ...

Some various links regarding this story ... a good read if you have the time

USS Mariner

Lookout Landing

Tacoma News Tribune

Seattle Times

Shannon Drayer - the offical beat writter for the seattle mariners

A humerous article written by the Royals version of Lookout Landing called Royals Review

A great little blog by the royals version of me ... called Royals on Radio

All-in-All ... today has already been a good day...

Now, lets go kick Texas Rangers butt

Thursday, July 9, 2009

What have we become...

Well, if i continue on this sparatic tale of only updating once a week ill hardly be keeping you all throughly and gainfully entertained.... not that my audience includes anyone outside my family and friends on facebook....

So .. this is just a general update ...

and with Geoff Baker from the seattle times reporting that there was a supposed pirates scout in the audience tonight one has to wonder who was he there to see..

i must admit i am alittle curious to know and our trade talks seems to swirl around the phillies, rockies, and pirates and i would not count out a three way trade/deal of some kind ... and to be honest with the several reports that the pirates are interested in some of the rockies prospects one has to wonder if a trade between the Mariners, Rockies and Pirates isnt brewing ... lets just think about this what do we have to offer the pirates ...

yuniesky benacourt ... sure we a hate/hate relationship with this young man, he still has alot of ability and talent ... hey, they are willing to take a chance lasting millage .. why not yuni... not to mention we also have migual batista, jeff clement, wlad balentine and one or two more non perment arms from the pen that could go at any moment.

at this point in time i dont see jarrod or erik going to either one of these teams ... also im starting to wonder if a deal is really out there waiting for either of them. with all this talk of roy halladay being avilable .. it has alot of teams out in flury... and makes me wonder how it makes them feel going from 'Doc' Halladay to Jarrod Washburn.. yeah just saying that in one sentance makes me want to order anti-depressents ..


Here is another interesting link to the new odds of season standing and playoffs and what everyone is on pace to achive .. interesting if you really want to know where the mariners stand


i think thats pretty much it ... i am going to go dig through some possible prospect hits with the pirates and rockies that we may get ... its really not Jacks MO to trade for someone like Jack Wilson ... he just .. dosnt fit in my mind ... while yes he has the defense and offensively he may be an upgrade to the current situation but he leave something to be desired ... i cant believe that this would be the seattle end game ... jack wilson... Jackie Z is too big for this and somethings going on .... outside of the ink thats on the paper ...

Thursday, July 2, 2009

New York, New York

Well, we made it out of new york with a win. Which lets face it much better than being swept. We atleast needed one and i think that if we come away with just one win from Boston 4 wins out of 9 games is going to be very acceptable being they are 9 straight games against the best teams in the league. some really tought competion but im glad to see gutz hit another one and ive been WAITING for branyan to crank one out of new Yankee stadium all week. so sad that he only got to take adavantage of one.

But going back to Gutz.. he's now on pass to hit about 16 home runs and i think he may even push for about 20 this season. Ive very happy to see him mature as a hitter as the season goes on.

Here is alitte graph of his home runs i wouldnt be surprised to see him develop into a 25 homer 25 steals type of guy. his power is there and if you dont believe me here is a graph of his other 7 home runs. they arnt JUST barely getting out they are all well hit balls. take a look

Here is the link if you want to go in and take a closer look at things. But i just see nothing but good things continueing for him and the seattle mariners right now. We may not end up winning the division but this is the start of a new dynasty within seattle.

Low Rider

While we all sit and dwell on the on going will we or won't we .. are we buyer or sellers konundrum, i decided its just as important to understand where the rest of the our rivals sit at with aquistions to make themselves better.

They actually seem to both be in the running for starting pitching although i have yet to see their team names attached to same player.

The Angles are looking for simply another bat to put into their line up along with an elite starting pitcher. Speaking in the Roy Halladay/ Jake Peavy range. I have to say atleast their going for it.

Wereas Texas can't really decide if their going for a starting pitcher to add to their rotation which in my opnion they really need or some solid relief pitching which i dont think could hurt. They are currently still wondering if El Duque has anything in the tank and if he is enough of a signing to put them over the top. im here to say no... thanks for playing

Ironicly thats all the Mariners have and they really need an additional left handed infielder with a stick. So, it makes you wonder what would have should these teams not be competing against eachother.

Players on the Angles watch list...

Jake Peavy has been rumored to be someone that the front office is listening to see if they can put together the "right deal" ... what this means is they don't really want to give up the asking price of prospects because they are getting .... well old. bottomline they need to get younger and trading away their tommorrow for one last shot seems foolish and they realize it. The only question they have to ask them selves... have we put together a team that can win a championship... i don't think so.

Along the same lines of Peavy they also seem to be interested in Dan Haren, and yet again why not. he's a great pitcher or record only reflects the lack of run support he is getting. i dont think they will give up the asking price yet again. which means they will keep searching or settle on the team they have

Matt Holiday has been rumored to be an interest either prior to the trade deadline or even afterwards in the off season. I LOVE THIS MOVE... you may ask why? BECAUSE, he is no where near his past potential in colorado. Holiday while being an above average player is NOT vald guerrero the second. he isn't and as soon as the rest of MLB catches up he'll be way over paid and won't be any help to a ball club. PLEASE MAKE THIS DEAL

Cinncinati Reds - there has been talk about them switching strengths for weaknesses ... gary matthews jr. for a bullpen arm.

Players not on the Angles watch list...

Pedro Marintez - why oh why would you not be interested ... he is a free agent that showed his competative edge back in march. WHY?

Player on the Rangers watch list...

Ben Sheets - this guy will be ready September, he a free-agent .. why not?

Pedro Martinez - they wont pay more than mini for him... probley wont happen but i like the effort...

Players not on the Rangers watch list...


clearly they arnt both huge buyers ... i suspect that there maybe more people they are interested this is just who i found in about an hour and a half of research. I would think that there maybe alot of action that goes on right arounde july 29-31

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

I know i know, they said it on the site but Fangraphs released it's "first half" UZR stats and i was actually really shocked... to read the article click here

Okay ... i knew the Rangers had a good team and they've had a good year and all but wow....i expected us to be ahead of everyone in the west... Just blew me away and thought i'd share

If you don't, don't

As promised here is the pitching locations on morrow. I was under the impression he attacked more the outside of the plate. While he had a couple of good pitches in that location, i was completely wrong in that assesment.

I didnt put it up, however Alex Rodriguez home run was right down the middle of the plate. I know, you know and brandon should know not to throw that pitch. hopefully he learned his lesson.

Below i included some statistics concerning Morrows pitches. Good info if you really want to see how he was pitching overall

Aboard the Lepor Colony

You know as hard as it was to see melky cabera's double in the 8th .. the mariners hung with one of the best teams in the league last night... and i must say i was proud of the way that Brandon Morrow approached last nights game. he obviously had a game plan, unfortunately like the past few weeks his control hindered him from being really effective.

So uh... how about Chris Woodward ..yeah .. i feel bad for him and that single handedly showed how much we are going to miss Beltre for the next few months defensively.

Im waiting for Russell Branyan to just absloutely destroy a pitch over right field wall ...

Ken Griffey Jr in left field was a bad idea and that double highlighted it .. why wasnt balentine in at that point? i mean dont get me wrong he's not by any one standards a "good defensive outfielder" however it would have been better than someone who is having his knee drained nightly.

Yuni to second -- Jose to third -- Cedeno will stay at short .... interesting take by USSM and reported by Larry Larue

Nice to see Kenji Johjima have a good hit but that double play he hit into in the like 2nd was completely predictable and again highlights our lack of effeciency with runners in scoring position.

So i guess that whenever my PITCHf/x tracker loads ill review brandon morrows locations. i will most likely post it up here whenever im done.


Tuesday, June 30, 2009

major tom to ground control... may day .. may day

You know things happen in sports for no other reason but that they do. its why we follow them its why the rest of us root for the under dog. Why we hate the Yankees and why we become infatuated with teams such as the Red Soxs, the Cubs, the Eagles, and the Bears. Every year it seems like they take us on a magic thrill ride and we never know whqat twist or turn it will take us. Some years its bad some years its good. But you just never know.

While there are alot of Seattle Mariner fans that just absloutely think that life just wont go on without Adirian Beltre, im here to say not so. For someone who enjoys statistics and who loves to understand how talent is evaluated on major league teams this would normally be blasphamy. but this time i maust stand up and say this is the year. I want to hold the tourch and say "Yes, we can" ... mainly just so i can say "Yes. we can" ... but also because there needs to be a time that we get behind our team and say no matter we are going to the promise land and im following you ever step of the way.

I love Adrian Beltre ... dont get me wrong. He is an amazing third basemen and has been a corner stone for us to lean on for the past four years. This year hasnt been nescarily been like the last. While he has had moments, so has Yuni. So has everyone Lopez has come through with some clutch hits against the Athletics, Angles, Twins and Tigers.

but take a look at the stats really fast for this year....

in 73 games he has had 297 Abs or 313 plate appearences

While over the past 9 years he has averaged around 20 hrs (he did have that break out one time 48 hr year and then went right back to 19 the next year) He was on a pace to only hit around 11... leading to his RBIs an awful pace of only 64.

his .259/.291/ .374 ... was below normal ... while his BA was close .. should he end the season below .300 OBP it would be the first time since 2003. However the OBP seems to have kept him on base to match his season total of runs from last year at around 75.

All the while his BB% has been cut nearly in half and his OSWING% has gone up by 5% --- what that means is he's not been himself this year even while his defensive UZR is a beltre normal 8.7 --

what ive been trying to say through these stats is very simple. We've been winning without him hitting and now we are going to win without him in the line up. We have managed to stay three games above .500 ... yes i know statisitcally he was bound to start improving and we have been riding some luck. why not have that luck last a season. Players go through spells of playing above their phsyical ability .... look at whats going on down in texas with their pitching staff. none of their top 3 pitchers have had years like what they have had this year. But, yet its happening. while some may say its only a matter of time before the regress back to the mean but i say why? Jarrod Wasubrn developed a change up and look at what its done for his pitching. he has developed into a legitimate #2 or 3 starter. yes i know he hasnt always been as bad of a pitcher as we make him out to be ... but he still has been at best a #4 starter. (this is a different arugment for a different time)

The point im trying to make is ... im waking the line and saying this is the mariners year. Yes they may just have to do it with Josh Wilson and Chris Woodward playing INF alot more than we would have liked. But, thats okay ... maybe... just maybe ... our luck will hold out...

Monday, June 29, 2009

West Coast Shippers

wow ... i just wrote this magnificant post and for whatever reason when i tried to post it ... it failed and blogger just lost it... BLAH!!!

my goodnesss ... the point of my post was this.

We are in a pennant race. Things could go either way at this point in time.

Should one team make a deal....i think it could set off a chain reaction of deals between Texas and LA ... i guess we shall see...

interesting tid bit here ... are the Rangers despereate enough to sell off one of the best top 15 pitchers in the minor leagues for a shot at the division. If that was the case i have to believe that whoever they make the deal for they would want a shot to re-sign them long term.

I am really surprised that LA has yet to make a move on pedro martinez...infact im down right shocked that he has yet to sign with a team....

lets keep focus this pennant race is only going to get bettter!

Friday, June 19, 2009

And im down to my last day..

Being in the military there comes a time where you get to ask yourself. "If today was my last day what would i do?" Sometimes it comes across selfish and I would answer "I would spend it all with my family, doing the things we all love and get one last moment with them." But, lest we forget what our main goal in life is that we may continue to further the kingdom of God. Maybe spend that last day spending it with friends and family telling them about Jesus Christ and their need for salvation. Its always hard to make that call and honestly by the time you end up trying to make the best decision possible, its already over.

Sounds sad, but really for alot of people it is reality.

For me, I dont look at my situation this way. Im only leaving for a short time. Yes, Six months is a good bit of time. But, really compared to many Men and Women that serve this country that is merely a blink of an eye compared to the years of service they will spend there.

I've been trying to figure out a way to put this blog together it started out as one with my wife (AJ) while making fun of Derek Jeter and lifes little funny nuences and it turned into writing about sports and then focusing on my love of baseball and the Seattle Mariners. I know not everyone really cares about them and thats okay. I know its a silly game and compared to the real issues of life that hang in the balance daily, its nothing. But that silly game makes me smile and reminds me how simple this life really is....a simple thrown ball, a bat to hit it with and some bags to touch as you run around a dirt diamond make up a sport that our country has been in love with for about 140 years.

At 17 i knew i didnt have the athletic ability nor the talent to make it very far in baseball. Looking back i know i didnt work as hard as i could have and i know that if i really wanted too i could have very possibly pieced together a independent career (but who really wants that) struggled and was tortued by the thought that i couldn't be involved with the game that i loved as i grew up so as a junior in highschool, i junked it. i threw it away like an old t shirt. ignoring and missing out on an amazing 2001 seattle mariners season.

While i was away from reality the Mariners really didnt do much and it seems to me that they took that same mental brake from the game. Only to have now found a new direction one pointed towards a succesful future, and i refuse (to lose lol) to miss out on it again.

I know my responsibility with the Lord and i know where he has pointed me thus far in my life and i know that i shouldnt get comfortable because just that time that i do he's got something else for me. I know that in the future ahead he has something thats great for me in the future.

This all culminates to 5 easy bullet statements. What are the top 5 things i feel im going to miss out on, as the season progresses strickly concerning the seattle mariners.

5. Felix Hernandez, i think this guy might just have the ability to turn around win 18 games. THAT WOULD BE GREAT!

4. Russell Branyan 40 Hr year .. i think he can... i think he can..

3.The flurry of trades and menauvers that Jack Z and Donny W are going to make upcoming!

2. The Griffey fairwell, once and for all the goodbye to The Kid IN A SEATTLE MARINERS UNIFORM!!

1. Seeing Ichiro get hits 200th hit this year and breaking the record for most 200 hit seasons in a row.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Leaps and bounds

So... i guess Bedard is headed to the DL.

1. I really am expecting a deal anytime ..

2. I believe that the following five people will be involved Mike Moarse, Jeff Clement, Jarrod Washburn, Erik Bedard, and Yuniesky Bentacourt.

3. Teams possibly involved are The Giants, The Phillies, The Rays, The Cardinals, I gotta believe that the Dodgers are willing ot listen to some deals too, and then anytime trade talk is circulating you can guarrentee that both the Red Soxs and the Yankees have their ear to the door willing to step in at a moments notice.

4. I think that you have to believe that the Mariners are becoming increasingly close because of the simply fact that they continue to swap around players between Seattle and Tacoma. I think they are consistnatly prepared for a deal getting done.

5. I will try and not jump to conclusions again. But, I really don't have a fifth point but seriously i always do things in five ... so there

The Boys are back in town...

So uh ... the wheels started turning upstairs. Mike Carp is in San Deigo, and exactly who are we sending down? While he is on the 40 man roster there is no space on the 25 man roster and with Johjima on his way back into the line-up and off the DL there is another roster spot that is going to have to open up. Then you take the following facts into the equation.

Brandon Morrow is going to hang around despite the fact that he is being convereted to a starting pitcher and we aren't taking Garrett Olson out of the rotation, this leaves a rotation of ... 6 pitchers? Not to mention that Ryan Rowling-Smith is on his way back after a decient outing in Tacoma. This equals out to one thing.

We have made a trade...

The Take Over, The Brakes Over

Here we are Mariner fans....

We have just about reached that pennicle of where the season culminates into a must win situation. i know, i know we are only in June. But take a look at the next month.

We have two more games against (the hated) San Diego Padres...

3 @ home v. Arizona
3 @ home v. San Deigo
3 @ LA v. Dodgers

Then a 3/3 @ New York/Boston

followed by a 6 game home stand

3 against Baltimore and 3 against Texas

RIGHT before the All-Star break.

Currently we are sitting at 2 under .5oo just 3.5 back for second place behind the angles and 5.5 back of texas for first.

There is no reason to think that we cant make out Atleast 13 wins in 23 games. to take us to .500 before the All-Star game. The Boston/New York run is going to be a HUGE test to see where we are at and after the all-star game is gets harder with the tigers, blue jays and another series with texas.

Im going to be in an out of pocket during this time so i really felt it important to put it out there. We have to take advantage of an easy end of june because we got a tough july coming up, and its about to punch us in the junk if we're not careful. If we end july within 6 games of first place we may still have a chance. Everything lies within our own grasp.

What is critical is that when we see texas or LA that we play them like its the playoffs. We go in there like its what is keeping us from the world series.

I just dont think we have ahad much agression towards those big and cruical teams this year.

Matt Cain vs. Tim Lincecum

Ahh...Matt Cain lets do this

First off i'm not saying Matt Cain you are a horrible pitcher. Not in anyway at all. Please understand that first point. But understand this between him and TL (Tim Lincecum) i don't think he's the best pitcher on the staff. Despite the face that Cain does have the "lower" ERA

TL Vs. MC arguement... Take one

Has Matt Cain won more games? Yes

Does Matt Cain have a better ERA? Yes

But right that is as far as Matt Cain goes..

Lincecum has pitched more innings (88 v. 86.2) in the same amount of games. While cain has 3 CG and Lincecum only has 1, TL has the only shutout between the two.

Lincecum has more strike outs (103 v 68) AND LESS walks. (26 v 34) and has compiled a WHIP of wins the WHIP war (1.17 vs. 1.26) and has the lowest OBP (.294 vs. .313)

TL has only given up 3 home runs vs the 9 that MC has let go out of the yard.

TL wins the *FIP( 2.18 v 4.04)and matt cain leaves the inning 88% of time with runners on base vs. Tim Lincecum 75% ...

FIP - Fielder Independant Pitching on an ERA scale...if he didn't have such good defense matt cain would be on the out...

Just because Cain has more wins and a lower ERA dosn't make him the better pitcher. He is obviously having a great season and the two are very close, i side with TL in this comparison simply because i don't believe that Matt Cain is going to sustain this type performance at this time.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

So far, So bad

Well i've been talking with my brother, and he made up his All-Star list two weeks ago. But, now its my turn,

The "guide-lines" are simple I try not to pick a bunch of people from one team, i.e. i don't fill the team up with Seattle Mariners because they are my favorite team.

The 2009 Harrison's Major League Baseball All-Star Team

------------American League

Catcher - Joe Mauer - Twins
1st Base - Mark Teixeira - Yankees
2nd Base - Aaron Hill - Blue Jays
3rd Base - Evan Longoria - Rays
SS - Derek Jetter - Yankees
OF - Jason Bay - Red Soxs
OF - Nelson Cruz - Rangers
OF - Carl Crawford - Rays
DH - Justin Morneau - Twins
P - Zack Grienke - Royals

--------------National League

Catcher - Bengie Molina - Giants
1st Base - Albert Pujols - Cardinals
2nd Base - Chase Utley - Phillies
3rd Base - Mark Reynolds - Diamond Backs
SS - Hanley Remierez - Marlins
OF - Raul Ibanez - Phillies
OF - Ryan Braun - Brewers
OF - Brad Hawpe - Rockies
DH - Aidrian Gonzalez - Padres
P - Dan Haren - Diamond Backs

----------HR Durby--------------

Russ Branyan - 1b- Mariners
Ryan Howard - 1b - Phillies
Carlos Pena - 1b - Rays
Adam Dunn - Of - Nationals
Brandon Inge - 3b - Tigers
Prince Fielder - 1b - Brewers

Smile like you mean it!

Wow okay i know that i really need to try and keep up with this and like hayden was saying in his blog, after time it just becomes hard to keep up with everything. Not to mention there is some but not ALOT of things going on. News has been coming in slowly. After the MLB draft nothing seems to have been really popping.

So lets go over what IS currently going on..

- Brewers look to possibly making a play for Erik Bedard

i think this A) works in our best possible interest because Jack Zduriencik is came from that organization as scouting director. he knows the prospects and B) The phillies are more interested in Washburn than Bedard.

The reason that i saw they are more intrested in Washburn is simple. They have Sam Perlozzo (who i love!) as a coach, he has seen bedard as a member of the Mariners pitching staff last year and he knows how many issues Bedard has with the media and adjusting to a new city. Seattle was bad enough do you really think that moving him to Philly is going to be easier? Plus the phillies employ Pat Gillick as a special advisor. As a former member of both the Mariners and the Orioles, i can't believe that Gillick would be infavor of this move. If and that is a BIG IF, the mariners made this issue. i dont think we would get nearly that much back as a Peavy, a Josh Johnson or another type A pitcher.

- Project Balentine is failing .. so very badly at this point.

Now dont miss understand me. He has made great adjustments to last year. But really, there was no place to go but up. He has 38 games, and while his BB%/K% has improved, its nothing to ride home about. He is suppose to give the line-up more power but has only one home run and been homerless for a month and a half. His defense is sitting at -6.9 uzr. He has more room to grow and started this season on a great streak almost moving Endy Chavez out of the platoon spot. However, coming back down to earth the past 6 weeks he has gone the exact opposite direction currently sitting at .218/.273/.336

I have to suspect that at this point he is a trade chip in whatever deal Jack Zduriencik is working. Michael Saunders has bee killing the ball at AAA and with his prospect status i am willing to bet that by August, Saunders will make his debut in blue.

- Morrow, blah, word vomit, blah

Everyone knows that Morrow is know being converted back to a started. like the volkswagon said, thats cool.

no needs to beat a dead horse. If you want more info on the situation check out USS Mariner, Lookout Landing or either of the Seattle Times page.

- 5.5 Games behind Texas

Yeah so what, i mean seriously this isnt an issue. The Rangers arnt going to win more than 88 games (if that) unless they make a move (which with their prospects its completely possible) they dont have the pitchers to really make a move. This division is up for grabs for whoever really wants it the most.

The question is at what point do we throw in this towel? At 5.5 we dont feel out of it but what about at 8 or 9. Do we feel the same at that point or do we start looking to next year.

I really like the idea that Dave Cameron and Mike Salk discussed the other day on 710 ESPN, and that was Buying AND Selling at the same time. Much like the A's and Billy Bean in the late 90s or much like Jack Zs trade early this year with JJ Putz. He got Chavez, Vargas and Gutz but also Carp and Carerra (who i love). Its about gathering players not just for tommorrow but also for today.

Other things to think about

When does Adam Moore come up ? I really hope they continue to wait until September (atleast)

Who plays third when/if Aidren is traded? I like the idea of keep branyan to play third, and bring either clement or carp up to play first to give us another left handed bat.

Where are all those guys we drafted in 2008? I was curious so i looked it up... check out the website below.

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Mr. Brightside .. or maybe not

Well, im not sure if the plan was to make sure the Rockies won every game no matter what. But if that was the case someone tottally forgot to tell Jose Lopez and now he made Mark Lowe look bad. Besides the two complete defensive colapses we havnt played bad ball. but, it does sting abit after working back to .500 only to give away two games in a row.

As it stands we really need a redemption game tommorrow afternoon. I must say maybe i am being a bit pisamistic, however i dont really expect anything great out of Vargas. Hes been pretty good so far this year. Really nothing like what he was last year for the Mets and has started looking like what the Marlins expected from him three years ago and currently he is posting an ERA of 2.35 a WHIP of 1.20.

You probley ask.. Harrison, why in the world are you worried about the pitching, it hasnt been the problem this year. Its the lack of runs that is killing us. Yes, true enough we have had alot of issues with runs, and even tonight only three different players (Ichiro, Beltre and Lopez) combined for our 8 hits. But our offense seems like its starting to streak in the right direction, and thats the way they work. Sometimes against you sometimes for you. This wave is taking us the way we want to go.

No, im worried about the pitching simply because Jason Vargas has averaged over 50% of hits put into play are fly balls for the past three years. (actually he has brought that down to 45% this year) He dosnt strike many hitters out and hitters make contact 83% of the time. He has given up 6 home runs in 6 starts and 8 games total that he's pitched.

So what does this mean? Flyball pitcher in coors field equates to death to that pitcher. yes Jarrod Washburn had a good outing despite the fielding errors. But he has been on a hot strike and he has a higher swinging strike percentage. I dont think Vargas will be that bad, and im so glad its him and not silva. But lets face it, any fly ball pitcher in coors is down right scary

Friday, June 12, 2009

Move along

So this is just a test of the emergency broadcasting system....

Also known as testing my blogger posts via my e-mail. Which is how i'll be updating my blog while i'm out on my trip to the middle east for the next six months.

Of course i'll giving killer statistical analysis and some weird sports views but thats why my blog is different than USS Mariner and L/O Landing's not just the same stuff. Although i love reading their reviews and insight.

I want to make more posts on here but since i've been home i have alot on my plate. i'll be making more updates with the more time i get.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

I'll be here awhile...

Its funny... I was thinking to myself yesterday with Brandon Morrow going 2 2/3's, "Man i don't remember him ever pitching this long out of the pen, that's kind of weird." and then of course as they announce lastnight by (TNT)/today that Morrow is looking to head to AAA to start strengthening his arm for heading to the starting rotation. Which sorry but i think that is tottally awesome. I know alot of people are pist off but you know what lets get over it. he's headed there now and thats better than never. hopefully that will be the same with aumont. Which i really think in the next year and a half he'll end up back in the rotation.

Someone mentioned this on another blog and i really agree with it. Aumont has a history of arm injuries and the purpose of taking him out of the rotation is simply to control the amount of innings he pitches. Which implies that this isn't a perment fixture. I think it's something they may just let take care of itself.

Morrow says he's not going to "rush" things, and is prepared to take his time and be in tacoma for awhile. I suspect he maybe down there until August or even September.

Top 5: Reasons to be glad Morrow is going to the rotation, despite being in AAA for the rest of the year.

5. He was rushed to the Majors anyways and needs time to truly develop without any pressure

4. Morrow is going to be able to build an everyday repetition which is needed when pitching every 5 days.

3. He needs to work on his secondary pitches. He doesn't throw them effectively and needs to learn that when mixed in with his fast ball they can realy throw off hitters... come to think of it if he would talk to Felix about that, it would help him too.

2. Morrow is one of the best prospects in the system and this just gave us a front line rotation guy without making a trade.

1. We can now have bobble head morrow night without him being on the teams roster. <--THIS

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Thoughts from 2009 MLB draft day

Bud Selig either is about to or has recently had a stroke. he scares me ... can we please elect someone who know what year it is?

Mike Trout to the Angles.... do you think he's going to hear some Tim Salmon jokes?

Dustin Ackley, i love him .... Nick Franklin is a solid choice in the system.

Back on the saddle again...

And again we are avoiding yet another paper. Actually this time i'm avioding 4 of them.

Just something to think about Ronny Cedeno is starting again for Yuni Bentacourt. It seems as if ol' Donny boy has had enough of the stuff from Yuni.

The Mariners are just 5 games back and if they keep winning games i gotta think that they will be making a move to aquire a middle infielder. Not sure who that would be but over at USS Mariner they have thrown out a few names....

OKAY SHUUUSSSHHHHHhhhhhhhhhh... Ol' Bud Selig is at the podium!

Nationals on the Clock...

If it's not Stratsbrugh i'll be stunned at this point.

Holy crap they are taking along time for this pick....longer than i would have thought...

And of course its Stratsburgh...


t-minus 30...

DUSTIN ... draft ... DUSTIN ...

w00t Dustin Ackley welcome to Seattle!

Now we wait to see how the 27th round shapes up.

Monday, June 8, 2009

perfect situation

i must say at this point in time there has been so much great blogging going on the last two weeks and i really feel as if i'm missing out on so much. i really haven't been keeping up wiht alot of it and what is even worse is besides the basic win/loss/ichiro hitting streak. i havnt been able to keep up with what is going on.

i know that RRS isnt coming back anytime soon with that disaster of a proformance in AAA.

i know that Tyler Johnson experiement finally had it's plug pulled.

i know that the Ms are finally starting to win some series again, showing they arnt as bad as they let on in early May.

i know that there are some serious debates going on about weather to blow up the team or even trade off bits and pieces prior to the oppertunity of the mariners maybe making a run at the west title. which btw as much as i love my mariners i dont think they can win it. unless for whatever reason their hitting suddenly changes and their pitcyhing stays right where its at.

besides that,

it looks like Beltre might finally be coming out of his slump.

it looks like jose lopez is still in his slump.

and it looks like they are really giving Ronny Cedeno every chance to prove that he can play everyday SS.

Bleeding blue and teal has a great article by a guest writter check it out!

USS Mariner has as per usual once of the best comprhensive in depth looks at our farm system with Jays monday post.

i'm really looking forward to the game tommorrow and even more so to the draft. 4 picks .. 2 rounds... heres hoping for ackley,scheppers, and the many others that we may contract like std's over the next few days.

good night

Saturday, June 6, 2009

That what you get

HEYEHEY!!!!! yes i'm back, yes i have reports due' and yes once again i'm choosing this wonderful blog over it those reports! i have alot to catch up ... a big win and some really horrible loses.

Last night i hear wladimir balentine committed 2 errors in left and that really cost us the game. all i have to say is ... what the heck happen wlad??? i mean seriously... you were so kicking butt you didn't have a good average but you were putting together smart approaches to the plate playing solid defense and now, you can't hit the ball and obviously you can't field it either.

really i don't have much about this week to really talk about besides randy finally got 300, glavine in a freakin cold hearted move got cut and the mariners won some and loss some games they shouldn't have. seems like i didnt miss much!

Sunday, May 31, 2009 Al Pachino's cash!

i'll be gone til saturday on a "camping" trip with the Army. i'll keep posting via twitter with my phone. If anyone's got questions for me bring it and i'll do some answering when i get back!

and if you want to ask via e-mail it's hit me up!

Friday, May 29, 2009

Boomtown ...Ode to "don't let this happen again!"

As everyone sits and complains about things such as Adam Jones and Chris Tomlin becoming the future center pieces within Baltimore, all the while we contemplate the trade possibilities with Erik Bedard.
I personally start to sit back worry about not just this trade but our of the trades of the past and where we are headed as an organiztion. Don't get me wrong, Jack Z makes me very confident with what he has put together so far and looking at what we got for JJ Putz i know he's on the right path. I mean we aren't even a year in and Seattle is looking like they could have very easily come out on top of that trade dispite the Mets being in 1st place. What, you0 don't believe me???
Lets take a look...


Franklin Guitierriez CF - .273 with 3 Hrs / 19 RBIs / 2 - 5 SBs/ UZR =5.7

Endy Chavez OF - .271 with 1 Hrs / 10 RBIs / 6-7 Sbs / UZR= 2.7

Ronny Cedeno SS - (via Aaron Hielman trade) .173 with 2 Hrs / 5 RBIs / 1-2 SBs UZR= 0.7

Jason Vargas LHSP - 1-0 / 1.29 ERA / 1.14 WHIP / 7-15 - BB/SO

Garrett Olson LHSP - (via Aaron Hielman trade) 0-1 / 3.66 ERA / 1.53 WHIP / 9-12 - BB/SO

Mike Carp 1b - (in AAA) .297 with 8 Hrs / 24 RBIs / 0-1 SBs / UZR = UNKNOWN

Ezequiel Carrera CF - (in AA) .351 with 0 Hrs / 16 RBIs / 12-18 SBs / UZR = UNKOWN


Jeremy Reed OF/INF - .298 with 0 Hrs / 3 RBIs / 0-1 SBs / UZR = 1.5

Sean White RRHP - 0-2 / 7.36 ERA / 1.91 WHIP / SVs 0-1 / 11 - 16 , BB-SO

JJ Putz Setup man - 1-3 / 3.42 ERA / 1.37 WHIP / SVs 2-3 / 16 - 18 , BB-SO

While Putz isn't having a bad year and Reed has been helpful during the mass amount of injuries that the Mets have run into. Carp is on a killing streak in AAA, Carrera is leading AA in walks along with working hard on his base stealing while hitting for a great avg. Oh yeah, and Vargas, Endy and Gutz have been key players in the Mariners Semi-Success so far this season. While Olson has been pretty impressive from both the bullpen and his couple of starts thus far through the season and he has a couple more starts on the way taking Jaskabaskas spot in the rotation.

either way .. we can say the Mariners have taken this trade, all the way up to unless JJ Putz DIRECTLY contributes to the Mets reaching the NLCS or even the series.

The whole point of this is leading some where. We have been in situations past where we have made trades and we gave up way too much to get way too little. it makes me worry what we are going to do with Jeff Clemente. We have alot of players where they seemingly are just able to hit but unable to play a position or we don't have a position to give them. Mike Morse, Bryan LaHair, Brad Nelson and then Jeff Clement.

While you can seemingly "clump" them all together, Clement has a much higher ceiling of all those players. He's also the youngest by a year(or two in Nelsons case) at 26.

The Mariners have had this issue with a young catcher before. However, it wasn't because of his ability to play catcher. (or lack there of) Just came down to a simple factor of having no room for him. His name was Jason Veritek. Oh yeah, he was named only the third captain of a Boston Red Soxs team since 1923.

Lets review the situation. The Mariners in desperate need for a closer with the utter colapse of their bullpen in 1997 and with the solid play of Dan Wilson, the mariners traded their top catching prospect Jason Varitek and hot young pitcher Derek Lowe to boston for Heathcliff Slocumb. it was a knee jerk reaction. they had an oppertunity to take the division and they did what they could to solidfy their oppertunity.

I don't want to see Jeff Clement become that would could have been. He reminds me alittle bit of Carlos Delgado while Carlos spent more time in the minors but also was younger when bursting onto the scene, his situation is similar and while the Jays were trying to work their youngster into the line up it was until he was 24 (5 years of minor league work from 19 years of age) that the jays had a place to give him... the DH. While Delgado has always had more pop than Clement, his(clement) ability really has started to develop further (that and his health has heald up long enough to show the mariners what they have.)

this is the point where i show you whats REALLY going on

Minor League Stats

Varitek ,AB - 1235 , AVG -.247, 39 Hrs, 165 RBIs, 167 Rs, 169 - 305 BB/SO

Delgado, AB - 2613, AVG .303, 125 Hrs, 295 RBIs, 244 Rs, 210 - 271 BB/SO

Clement, AB - 1214, AVG .290, 52 Hrs, 215 RBIs, 195 Rs, 151 - 245 BB/SO

Obviously as you can tell Clement draws comparisons to both players as i was saying and the point that i'm trying to make is very simple. It all comes down to value. Make sure you get it.

This young man has major league ability and SHOULD he be traded. we need proper value back, lets not be at a point four years from not saying i wish...

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Tell me Moore, tell me moore

With The Mariners deciding two days ago upon the promotion of Guillermo Quiroz. It settled the tiny debate that was growing that the mariners may want to take a look at Adam Moore. While he has a lot of tools and he is older in age. I posted in the blog on my top 5 on Tuesday that i thought it was a mistake to bring him in to the fold just yet. Let me do a quick explanation on why i believe that and then I'll turn my attention to the real basis for my blog today.

Adam Moore while being 26 and playing collage ball has over 1200 minor league at-bats. It was pointed out in this article by Jerry Crasnick over at ESPN about the importance of a hitter having at minimum 1500 abs to become a successfully major league hitter. Adam Moore will get those final 300 ab this year in AAA Tacoma, and while he isn't hitter bad (.270/.357/.324 AVG OBP SLG) he still has sometime to spend to adapt to the next level of pitching. I fully expect for him to come out next year at spring training and be competitive for the starting catching position. But until then we have time to allow him to learn and refine his skills. We hope to have him on our team for years to come and instead of trying to pull him to the majors like some former prospects we need to make him grab our attention down at AAA.

Kenji vs. Rob - The Catching Cliche

My dad called me last night and one of the first things he says to me is "So, I guess Johnson's back in there... Good, i think we do better when he's catching"

There has been a lot of people with that feeling. Even I myself have had that feeling from time to time. Rob Johnson is just a very like able guy. He plays and works very hard, he communicates with the pitchers very well, in his interviews he comes across as a down to earth guy.

But beyond all that is he really better than Johjima? This involves more than just fielding percentage, or what they are doing at the plate. This is quantifying a position that beyond any other position (besides the Pitcher) on the baseball field impacts every play.

Of Course i did my research and this is by far not something i did by myself but took many great statisticians and other great authors work to help support my points being made.

--David Gassko Hard ball times on "Quantifying Catcher Defense, and Other Stuff Like That"

--Tom Tango "Evaluating Catchers"

-- Erik from beyond the box score "Catching Prospects: Pop-guns and Bazookas"

definitions for stats used

Innings = Innings the player has played at the position of catcher

ZR = Zone rating
a measure of fielding ability based on the number of outs made in relation to the number of
balls hit into a player's zone, limiting the zone to an area considered playable by the
fielder; calculated as outs/(balls hit into zone).

PB/I% = Passed Balls per inning catching

CS% = Caught Stealing percentage
the percentage of players trying to steal that the catcher throws them out.

CERA = Catchers ERA

This would be the average runs scored on pitcher while the catcher is behind the plate.

HRA = Home runs against

The number of home runs a catcher has given up.

WPA = Win Probability Added

Clutch - How much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment.

O-Swing% Percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone

Contact% - Total percentage of contact made when swinging at all pitches

WAR - Wins Above Replacement

(sorry the picture is horrible i'll get a better one up.)

Mariners Record w/ Johnson 11-10

Mariners Record w/ Johjima 9-15

(Jamie burke gets credit for 3 games in which we are 2-1)

The best that we can say is that the Mariners pitching staff and team performs better with Rob Johnson behind the plate, but Kenji appears to be the better player

That said it appears that Johnson has been making a better attempt and seems statistically to be just as good if not better in some small ways. Now, yes the 30% vs. 45% of runners caught stealing is rather large gap. But remember this is Robs first full years in the bigs and he is making a lot of adjustments. Kenji has been playing for 10+ years of professional ball.


Tottally stumbled across this article about statistical analysis of Clutch hitting.

Take alook and tell me what you think. It's written by Tom Tango THE LEADING statistical guy
in baseball right now. He works with Bill James and a few other statistical analysis guys.